Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q1) First quarter GDP and balance of payments data from Chile add to evidence that the economy is on the mend. Not only did quarterly GDP growth accelerate but the current account also registered a... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is globalisation dead? The past four years have seen the slowest pace of global economic integration since the Second World War. With trade talks stalled and most parts of the world already integrated into the global... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Focus How much should the drop in oil prices boost demand? The rebound in oil prices over the last few months has vindicated our view that oil prices had fallen too far, even if they have bounced back a little more sharply than we had anticipated. We expect... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia held steady at 2.0% y/y in April as further weakness in food price pressures was offset by a pick-up in rental inflation. Looking ahead, we expect headline inflation to... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Two years after the taper tantrum: how does India fare now? Two years ago this month the rupee entered a prolonged plunge against the US dollar amid the “taper tantrum”, eventually falling to an all-time low. But in the event of external financing conditions... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q1) The pick-up in Thailand's growth in Q1 was exaggerated by a low base in the first quarter of 2014, when growth contracted and political unrest was at its peak. With the economy facing headwinds such... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ still likely to ease before too long The Bank’s decision not to announce more stimulus at the end-April meeting will only make it more difficult to reach its 2%-inflation target, as any support from a weaker yen and rising import prices... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Mar.) Machinery orders rose by more than 6% q/q last quarter, so business investment should have finally started to recover again. 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Construction employment losses likely only beginning The recent job losses in the construction sector are likely only a precursor of what's in store for the year ahead. Falling energy investment and cooling housing demand could form the perfect storm... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack How will EM corporate spreads react to higher US rates? Although underlying Treasury yields have risen since the end of March, dollar-denominated corporate bond yields have fallen in all emerging market regions, owing to a sharp fall in credit spreads. We... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weakness of consumption not due to new health care rules The introduction of Obamacare doesn't appear to have had any lasting downward impact on medical care consumption. Spending did decline in the first few months of last year, but it has rebounded... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Dovish US data support commodity prices Commodity prices have generally had a good week, helped by further soft economic data from theUS and a renewed decline in the value of the dollar against other major currencies. Thestabilisation in... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod'n (Apr.) & Consumer Conf. (May) The weakness in industrial production underlines the negative impact that lower oil prices and the stronger dollar are having on the mining and manufacturing sectors. At the same time, the drop back... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Gilt market ‘rout’ poses little threat to economy The recent sharp rise in government bond yields, most pronounced at the long end, has fuelled concerns about its potential adverse impact on the economy. After all, since it has not been accompanied... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Mar.) Although the rebound in manufacturing sales in March was stronger than expected, this mainly reflected volatility in transportation, with little evidence of any underlying improvement. Accordingly... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The future looks bright for cobalt Strong demand prospects will support cobalt prices in 2015-16. However, for now, the supply picture is more than comfortable suggesting only limited scope for significant price gains. 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
