Asia Economics Focus Is a household debt crisis brewing in Korea? The sharp rise in household credit growth in recent months has exacerbated fears about Korea’s already-high household debt level. While financial stability risks should remain contained in the near... 25th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Apr.) The trade balance returned to deficit in April and will likely remain in the red in coming months. 25th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household debt becoming a burden The all-clear siren sounded by the Fraser Institute last week on household debt is misleading. The debt service metric they use only captures the interest cost portion of debt, which completely misses... 25th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response CPI (Apr.) & Retail Sales (Mar.) While headline inflation fell below the Bank of Canada's 1% to 3% target range in April , the ongoing impact of the weaker loonie meant that core inflation rate was still as high as 2.3%. The impact... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Q1 GDP data confirm EM downturn Most emerging economies have made a weak start to the year. The Q1 GDP data released so far point to a slowdown in aggregate EM economic growth and early activity data for April suggest that this has... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Fed back in focus as US inflation picks up The past week has been a good one for commodity prices, with most recording at least a small increase. Adverse growing conditions boosted the prices of coffee and wheat, while silver again... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Slowdown in world trade growth not as bad as it looks The sharp slowdown in trade growth since the start of the year partly reflects the weakening in the world economy in the first quarter. However, trade has also been depressed by a series of temporary... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African markets shrug off weak economic news South Africa’s rand rallied over the past month, despite a string of weak economic data suggesting that growth is slowing and inflation is picking up. Nigeria’s naira held steady, but yields on the... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Surge in trade deficit will soon be reversed This week we expect to learn that, rather than edging up by 0.2% annualised as the first estimate indicated, first-quarter GDP contracted by 0.7%. The principal reason for the revision is that net... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stronger German recovery depends on export revival Last week’s data gave mixed signals about Germany. On the one hand, the second GDP release showed that Q1’s slowdown belied a strong domestic economy and May’s Ifo survey pointed to a pick-up in... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (Apr.) Today’s raft of activity data suggests that the slump in Russia’s economy deepened further at the start of Q2. Output appears to have fallen by about 4.0% y/y in April. This should dash any remaining... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 0.3% m/m increase in core consumer prices in April, which pushed the three-month annualised rate of core inflation up to a four-year high of 2.6%, leaves the Fed with less scope to delay raising... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is that it for deflation? News that the UK economy finally experienced deflation in April is to be cheered – it is emphatically of the ‘good’ sort, driven by cheaper commodity prices rather than weaker demand. Looking ahead... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yen to fall to 140 against the US dollar The yen’s tentative break of 120 against the dollar in the past week has refocused attention on the currency pair after several months of stability. We continue to expect the yen to weaken... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will the yen remain undervalued? On several metrics, the yen appears to be the most undervalued major developed market currency: on a purchasing power parity basis and when its real effective exchange rate (REER) is compared to both... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
