Greece on the brink

Greece’s decision to emulate Zambia and bundle its June IMF payments has allowed another “make or break” moment to pass without either. But the continued divergences between the country and its creditors have left it very close to the brink.

For now we are nervously maintaining our base case scenario that some form of short-term deal is cobbled together which facilitates the disbursement of the final bailout tranche and keeps Greece in the single currency union in the short term. But risks to this scenario are high and rising.