Bank of Canada Watch Bank will be on hold for some time The Bank of Canada is unlikely to take any action at the upcoming policy meeting on 7th September. The 1.6% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP was worse than the 1.0% fall the Bank assumed in... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Can land shortages explain faltering housing starts? According to an NAHB survey, land shortages are at their most severe since records began in 1997. Low interest rates may be making landowners reluctant to sell, while labour shortages will be curbing... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Slump in exports another devastating blow The big news in the last month has been a sharp move up in exchange stocks of copper and a renewed slump in tin inventories. However, the bigger picture is that exchange stocks of metals have not... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Why is the inventory of homes for sale so low? The key driver of low levels of existing home inventory looks to be movers deciding to keep hold of their previous home rather than selling it. In turn, that behaviour has been encouraged by ultra-low... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Focus shifts to US payrolls Hawkish comments by some Fed officials and a slight strengthening of the US dollar ahead of Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday weighed on the prices of most commodities over the past week... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Despite better June, GDP probably still fell sharply in Q2 Our calculations suggest that monthly GDP rebounded by 0.5% m/m in June which, if GDP in the first two months of the quarter was unrevised, would translate into a 1.5% annualised decline in the second... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Gradual slowdown in pace of payroll gains inevitable Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payrolls increased by a more sustainable 180,000 in August. Otherwise, we suspect that after remaining unchanged in recent months, the unemployment rate... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul. 2016) Although the strong rise in durable goods orders in July was partly due to a massive rebound in the ever-volatile commercial aircraft category, the details of the report provide tentative evidence... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (24th Aug. 16) US crude oil and gasoline inventories rose last week, despite demand remaining relatively strong and production falling. 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Real consumption growth will inevitably slow The stagnation in retail sales in July was not entirely surprising. Following the 4.2% annualised surge in real consumption in the second quarter, it was inevitable that spending growth would ease to... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul. 2016) Against expectations, new home sales surged in July to reach their highest level in over eight years. But that has caused market conditions to tighten even further. And, with housing starts stalling... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) With the growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate at a solid 4.4% y/y in July and bank loan growth at an even stronger 7.7% y/y, the economy appears to be in good health. 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Should we be worried by household debt? The latest data show that household debt is now close to its 2008 peak in dollar terms. However, the gains in income over the past eight years and the decline in interest rates mean that households... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Have home sales peaked? The surge in the annual rate of house price inflation to a six-year high of 10.9% y/y in July, from 10.0%, reflected a spreading out of the housing mania beyond just Toronto and Vancouver. The recent... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Retail Sales (Jun.) A drop back in gasoline prices was enough to push the annual CPI inflation rate back down to 1.3% in July, from 1.5%. The core inflation rate was unchanged at 2.1% last month, however, as the Canadian... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gas prices deflate on milder weather outlook US natural gas prices have fallen back in recent weeks, largely as a result of forecasts of milder weather. While we think that production should hold up in the second half of 2016, we are still... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
