US Economics Update Conditions in place for consumption growth to accelerate Even though consumption growth lost momentum at the end of the third quarter, the conditions for stronger growth are falling into place ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season. 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Valuation picture weighing on housing market confidence We are not convinced that September’s drop in realtor confidence will herald another large dip in home sales. But it is another reminder that housing valuations are starting to become a drag, rather... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Demand for US corn to remain weak despite falling prices Although the price of US corn has fallen to levels last seen in early 2010, lower livestock numbers, limits on ethanol demand and lower international corn trade will prevent a large pick-up in demand. 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) The decline in mortgage interest rates to a 17-month low in October provided a temporary boost to refinancing activity. Mortgage applications for home purchase were still languishing in the doldrums... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Risk of spikes in US natural gas prices still high The recent unseasonably warm weather has given US natural gas companies additional time to boost stocks before heating demand picks up. However, the amount of gas in storage is still significantly... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Midterms don’t alter the economic landscape Although the midterm elections have tipped the balance of political power towards the Republicans and could kick start progress on some trade and energy policies, they don’t alter the economic... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack After a wobble, US equities post another record high The S&P 500 has recovered from a major wobble in October and recently posted another record high. That being said, we don’t think the strong performance is likely to last. The value of the US stock... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September's encouraging trade report confirmed that the recovering export sector provided a solid positive contribution of around one percentage point to third-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The increase in the trade deficit to $43.0bn in September, from $40.0bn, means that third-quarter GDP growth is now set to be revised down from the initial 3.5% annualised estimate to about 3.0%... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The month-on-month increase in house prices in September suggests that the housing market is putting the very weak mid-year period behind it. But underlying rates of house price appreciation are still... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the strong dollar a threat to the US stock market? Although the US stock market has rebounded in recent weeks, one development that could cap its upside is a further rally in the dollar. A strengthening currency causes exporters to lose market share... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack likely to persist Indicators show that labour market conditions have deteriorated over the past year or so. The actual amount of slack in the labour market, though, appears to be less than we previously thought. But... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Banks still easing credit conditions despite end of QE3 The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey indicates that commercial banks are making it easier for households and smaller businesses to obtain credit, suggesting that the Fed's QE taper has had no... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index back to a three-year high in October supports our view that the US economy will largely shrug off the recent easing in global demand and the effects of the... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The decline in GDP for August, after the near-stagnation in July, suggests that third-quarter GDP growth may have fallen short of the economy's potential growth rate of 2.0% annualised. 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Bubble in US Treasuries should deflate soon If recent history is any guide, Fed tightening is unlikely to derail stock markets to the extent that many fear. Our view is that while US equities will struggle to make further headway, they will... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
