US Chart Pack Slump in gasoline prices an unexpected boon The unexpected slump in the national retail gasoline price, from a peak of $3.80 per gallon in the summer to a near four-year low of $3.00 now, will provide a sizeable boost to fourth-quarter real... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran nuclear deal pushed back until June The extension of the talks between Western powers and Iran over its nuclear programme doesn’t come as a surprise. Nonetheless, lower oil prices should increase the pressure on Tehran to reach a deal... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Plenty of upside for gold despite likely Fed tightening Gold remains out of favour with Western investors and commentators focused on the prospect of tighter US monetary policy and further dollar strength. But we see scope for a decent recovery in the... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Financial conditions index overstates prospects for GDP growth The Bank of Canada's revamped monetary conditions index signals that financial conditions looser than they have been for most of the past 15 years. Normally GDP growth would be expected to accelerate... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) The stronger than expected 2.3% core inflation reading in October won't change the Bank of Canada's mind that ultra low interest rates are needed to tackle the weakness in the real economy that would... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Yen's collapse to have only modest impact on US economy Russian activity data for last month suggest that the economy withstood the initial sharp drop in the price of oil better than some had feared. But even so, the big picture is that growth is still... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update This holiday shopping season could be the best in nine years Regardless of what happens on Black Friday, other more useful indicators suggest that this holiday shopping season could be the best in nine years. 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) The sixth increase in seven months took existing home sales to within a whisker of their pre-taper high in October. Existing home sales are benefitting from the decent labour market recovery and the... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s consumer prices data go some way to underlining that price deflation in the US economy is confined to the energy sector. That said, we wouldn’t be surprised if some of the recent fall in... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Fed's new monetary tools should ensure a smooth rate lift-off When the time comes next year to begin normalising interest rates, we believe that, using the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate and its new liquidity management tools, the Fed will be able to... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Keystone XL delayed again, but likely to be approved next year Despite rejection yesterday, the Keystone export limited (XL) pipeline is likely to be approved early next year when the Republicans take control of the Senate. Eventually this should add to the... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) The decline in housing starts in October was entirely driven by a fall in the volatile multi-family component. With single-family starts, building permits and homebuilder confidence all rising, the... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Cheaper loonie will help to boost tourism trade The recent decline in the value of the Canadian dollar will provide a much-needed boost to domestic tourism. That support, aided by a steadily improving US economy, could add as much as 0.5 percentage... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is QE in Japan and Europe good or bad for the US? Although the Fed recently concluded its quantitative easing (QE), the Bank of Japan has announced an expansion in the pace of its own asset purchases and the ECB is edging closer to full-blown QE. We... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The growth rate of broad money has eased, as the Fed has wound down its asset purchases and expanded its reverse repo and term deposit facilities. As the Fed expands the use of those liquidity... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Production (Oct.) & Empire State (Nov.) The 0.1% m/m fall in industrial production in October will boost concerns that the global slowdown and stronger dollar are taking their toll on activity. While industry should be hit harder than other... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
