US Economic Outlook Growth should pick up as headwinds fade After a muted performance over the past 12 months, we expect GDP growth to accelerate in the second half of this year, albeit mainly because the drags from falling investment and inventories will fade... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jul. 16) Headline CPI inflation remained unusually low in July and the latest drop in energy prices will keep it below 2% for longer than we first thought. Core consumer prices rose by 0.1% m/m, which was... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul. 16) Housing starts managed to rise modestly for the second month in a row in July, but their overall performance remains lacklustre. But with so few existing homes for sale and the labour market creating... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) At first glance, the 0.5% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales volumes looks encouraging, but downward revisions to sales in the first two months of the quarter mean that the decline in second-quarter... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is another rate cut coming sooner than we thought? Right now it is hard to find anything positive to say about Canada’s economy. Around the start of this year things seemed to be going in the right direction; with non-energy exports on a tear and the... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses continue to favour hiring over capex The latest data suggest that while firms are reluctant to increase capital expenditure, they are nonetheless continuing to expand their workforces. With the unemployment rate below 5%, however, the... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Aug. 16) The small rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence in August suggests that the weaker-than-expected July retail sales figures were a blip rather than the start of a more... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul. 16) The acceleration in national house price growth to a six-year high of 10.9% y/y in July, from 10.0%, reflects a spreading out of the housing mania beyond just Toronto and Vancouver. The most recent... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul. 16) Retail sales were unchanged in July, as a rebound in motor vehicle sales was largely offset by a price-related drop back in the value of gasoline station sales. After a clearly unsustainable 4.2%... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Brexit’s impact is already fading The impact of Brexit on the housing market has been short-lived and minimal. A widening in spreads meant that mortgage rates did not fall as far as Treasury yields, which have in any case since... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity slump even worse than previously feared The second-quarter productivity figures, which incorporate the recent downward revisions to historical GDP, reveal that the stagnation in productivity growth was even worse than we previously believed... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is the rental market losing steam? Despite some signs that the rental market is losing momentum, low rental vacancy rates and the prospect of stronger growth in average hourly earnings mean that investors in residential real estate can... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Export growth muted even without a trade war The economy’s reliance on trade with the US means that the current US presidential election campaign could be pivotal for Canada’s export outlook. The big question is whether a President Trump would... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Pace of consumption growth will inevitably slow The news that real personal spending increased by 0.3% m/m in June, along with the reported surge in auto manufacturers’ unit sales in July, implies that real consumption growth began the third... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & Int. Trade (Jun.) The better than expected 255,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July will renew speculation that the Fed might hike interest rates as soon as this September, but we still think Fed officials will... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) The drop in mortgage rates triggered by Brexit gave the refinancing sector a boost in July. But applications for home purchase dropped back, as tight credit conditions and a lack of housing inventory... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
