US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (July 2016) After last week’s disappointing second-quarter GDP data, the very minor fall in the ISM manufacturing index in July should soothe fears that the US economy is heading into a more serious downturn... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The disappointing 1.2% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP growth, combined with the downward revisions to gains in the preceding two quarters, make a September interest rate hike much less likely... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weak GDP will give Fed reason to pause Despite the more hawkish language in last week’s FOMC statement, the GDP data have significantly reduced the chances of a near-term rate hike. The economy has been growing at around 1% annualised for... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tax on foreign investors won’t pop Vancouver bubble The B.C. government’s announcement last week that it intends to impose a 15% tax on home purchases by foreign investors is unlikely to topple Vancouver’s housing bubble. 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market remains in good health Our econometric model points to a healthy 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July. As a result, the unemployment rate probably edged back down to 4.8%, from 4.9%. 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed edging toward a September rate hike The Fed was never going to provide a definitive steer on future rate decisions at this week's FOMC meeting, particularly not when Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium in... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Policymakers will struggle to boost economy The sharp drop in oil prices and the Canadian dollar have led to a rapid deterioration in Canada’s economic outlook, overwhelming the ability of policymakers to stabilise the economy with conventional... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices / New Home Sales (May/Jun.) New homes sales have performed well in recent months, and now stand at their highest level for over eight years. But with housing starts stalling, inventory levels are becoming tighter. That implies... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The trivial decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in July left the index still at a high level by historical standards. It also supports our view that, after what could turn... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Surge in real consumption drives Q2 GDP growth Our calculations indicate that second-quarter GDP growth accelerated to 2.5% annualised, thanks primarily to a massive 4.5% surge in real consumption. The latter would mark the biggest quarterly gain... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly GDP growth boosted by strength of consumption Our calculations indicate that second-quarter GDP growth accelerated to a more respectable 2.5% annualised, following a disappointing 1.1% gain in the first quarter. But be aware that the BEA will... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Retail Sales (May) The surprisingly resilient 0.2% m/m gain in retail sales in May, which was above the consensus forecast of no change, means that monthly GDP probably only contracted by 0.3% m/m despite the disruption... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Dollar strength takes some steam out of prices With a few exceptions, the prices of industrial commodities have taken another hit this week, pressured by profit taking and renewed strength in the US dollar. Meanwhile, the ECB’s decision to keep... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) Existing home sales edged out a small gain in June, helped by a rise in first-time buyer numbers. But the months’ supply of homes for sale has fallen to its joint-lowest level for 11 years, and the... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The outlook for mortgage rates following Brexit The downward pressure on mortgage interest rates from Brexit already appears to be unwinding, with 30-year fixed rates increasing last week from 3.60% to 3.65%. Given we expect Brexit will have a... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Improving data point to September rate hike The Fed is very unlikely to spring any surprises at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday 27th July, but a September rate hike is a distinct possibility. The statement next week... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
