US Housing Market Outlook Housing market activity finally picking up A surge in new home sales in April, which was only partly reversed in May, suggests that housing market activity is finally picking up. Activity is being supported by an improving labour market, very... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The sharp rise in the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence in June suggests that the recent acceleration in consumer spending growth is set to continue. 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Second-quarter GDP growth looks good Despite the apparent slowdown in the labour market, the latest activity data point to a solid rebound in second-quarter GDP growth. Growth in underlying retail sales reached a two-year high in May... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Economy approaching full employment Despite the slowdown in the first quarter, the incoming monthly data point to a big rebound in second-quarter GDP growth and we still expect growth for 2016 as a whole to be 2.0%. The UK’s vote to... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Impact of Brexit on housing market will be limited The sharp drop in Treasury yields following the decision by the UK electorate to leave the European Union is unlikely to trigger an equivalent drop in mortgage rates. At the same time, with the impact... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Wage growth shows “tentative” signs of a pick-up The growth rate of average hourly earnings has accelerated to 2.5%, from a norm of nearer 2.0% in recent years, and other measures like the Atlanta Fed’s tracker suggest that median wage growth is... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The 2.2% m/m decline in headline orders last month undershot consensus expectations for a more modest 0.5% m/m decline partly because of a weaker than expected gain in the notoriously volatile... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Brexit unlikely to have a meaningful impact on US economy The UK vote to leave the European Union (EU) has inevitably triggered an immediate negative reaction in global financial markets, but we do not anticipate a significant sustained tightening in US... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) After a 12.3% m/m jump in April, it is not surprising that new home sales fell back in May. But even after a 6.0% m/m drop sales in May were 5.6% higher than in March. That suggests that new home... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Existing Home Sales (May) Existing home sales rose by a marginal 1.8% m/m in May, helped by low mortgage rates. But with sales back to their long-run average and the inventory of homes for sale very low, we doubt sales will... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Increased US drilling activity to limit upside for oil prices Early signs that rising crude prices have induced oil companies to bring drilling rigs back online suggest that US output could rise sooner than previously thought, especially in light of the... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s rate forecasts veering like a drunken sailor The key US event this week will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to Congress. She will be testifying to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May.) Today’s data on housing starts were somewhat disappointing, showing no change in starts between April and May. But with market conditions still tight and builder confidence rising, starts should... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly House price gains fuelled by increasingly risky mortgages The news last week of a further acceleration in house price growth in Toronto and Vancouver in May followed hot on the heels of the warning from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz that “the... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Core CPI inflation dropped back only slightly to 2.1% in May, from 2.2%, but it should decline more markedly in the second half of this year, as the inflationary impact from the earlier slump in the... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is average normal for US equities? The bears’ argument that the valuation of the US stock market is unsustainably high is typically made by comparing the current level of Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio (CAPE) for... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
