Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (June 2016) The 700 decline in employment in June was below consensus expectations of a 5,000gain, in part because of a fall back in the number of public administration workers asthe majority of temporary census... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (June 2016) The 287,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in June suggests that the sharp slowdown in the preceding months was nothing more than ablip. Fed officials will want to see evidence of a more sustained... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (May) & ISM Non-Manu. (Jun.) Despite the widening in the nominal trade deficit to $41.1bn in May, from $37.4bn, net trade probably still provided a small boost to second-quarter GDP growth, which we suspect was close to 3%... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to act despite downgrade to GDP forecast Despite an apparent return to below-potential GDP growth and the financial market turmoil triggered by the UK's decision to leave the EU, we expect the Bank of Canada to leave its policy rate... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) The merchandise trade deficit was broadly unchanged at C$3.3bn in May, thanks in part to an upward revision to the April figure. Despite the disruptions to oil sands production from the Alberta... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Will single-family housing starts ever recover? In order for housing starts to make sustained headway, building in the single-family sector needs to rise. For that to happen, builders need to shift production towards lower priced starter homes... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) The impact from Brexit is being felt in the mortgage market. Mortgage interest rates have dropped on the back of a decline in Treasury yields, which has given refinancing activity a boost. Rates are... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal supply to fall further this year, but so should demand The rally in coal prices over the past month has boosted investor sentiment. Admittedly, production in China, the US and Indonesia has finally started to fall. But prices have now risen to levels... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) CoreLogic reported a strong rise in house prices in May, in line with the recent run of solid gains. With mortgage rates now likely to stay close to record lows for longer, house prices will continue... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Brexit vote doesn’t change the task facing the Fed While the UK Brexit vote triggered some initial volatility in financial markets, many of the adverse moves have already been unwound and overall financial conditions in the US remain considerably... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a 16-month high of 53.2 in June, from 51.3, was much better than consensus expectations and is consistent with GDP growth of a little more than 2%. Indeed... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Brexit is the least of Canada’s worries The UK referendum vote to leave the European Union has triggered a renewed turmoil in financialmarkets, but we doubt the decision will damage Canada’s economy in any meaningful way. Despitethe strong... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) The muted 0.1% m/m gain in real GDP in April, while in line with consensus expectations, is disappointing since it follows contractions in both February and March. Furthermore, the raging wildfires... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Marked rebound in payrolls might not be evident until July Our econometric model points to a 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, thanks in part to the return of 35,000 Verizon workers who were excluded from the payroll survey in May. Under those... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US inventories of crude oil fell sharply in the week to 24 th June, on the back of constrained supply and higher refinery demand, but gasoline stocks rose again. 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing market activity finally picking up A surge in new home sales in April, which was only partly reversed in May, suggests that housing market activity is finally picking up. Activity is being supported by an improving labour market, very... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
