US Economics Weekly Uncertainty mounts over pick-up in GDP growth There is now a marked gap opening up between the incoming expenditure-based data, which point to a healthy rebound in third-quarter GDP growth and the production-based business survey evidence, which... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing bubble still a tale of two cities The reported 23% y/y decline in Vancouver home sales in August unsurprisingly prompted claims in the media last week that the new foreign buyer tax, which took effect at the start of last month, had a... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.16) The 26,000 rebound in employment in August looks good at first glance but, following the 31,200 decline in July, that still means employment is down slightly over the past three months as a whole. The... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (8th Sep. 16) US crude stocks fell by the second largest amount on record last week. However, this was almost entirely due to a drop in imports which may rebound next week. 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLT survey reveals tightening labour market The rise in the job openings rate to a record high of 3.9% in July, from 3.8%, suggests that, despite the slowdown in payroll gains in August, labour market conditions continue to tighten, which... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada opens door to rate cut The Bank of Canada issued a relatively dovish statement today, warning that “risks to the profile for inflation have tilted somewhat to the downside since July”. 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) Despite a positive economic backdrop supporting housing demand, very low levels of housing inventory are putting off potential buyers. Mortgage applications for home purchase fell for the second... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Market conditions tighten further A lack of inventory continues to drive developments in the housing market. The number of existing homes for sale dropped below 2 million in July, its lowest level in 15 years. Meanwhile, a surge in... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Weak survey evidence puts Q3 rebound in jeopardy The unexpected slump in the ISM non-manufacturing index to a six-year low of 51.4 in August, from 55.5, should all but rule out any possibility of a September rate hike, particularly as the... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) The large 0.9% m/m gain in house prices reported by CoreLogic in July is likely to be revised down in due course. But with inventory levels at 15-year lows, the conditions are in place for house price... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Prices get a payrolls boost A weaker-than-expected US employment report on Friday all but removed the prospect of a US interest rate rise this month, although we still think a hike is likely before the end of the year. The... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Does it make sense to raise the inflation target? The Bank of Canada is unlikely to take any action at the upcoming policy meeting this Wednesday. The 1.6% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP was worse than the 1.0% fall the Bank assumed in its... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rise in labour’s share of income has further to run The gradual decline in the unemployment rate over the past couple of years has generated a cyclical rebound in labour’s share of income, which we suspect has further to run. At first glance, this... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) & Int. Trade (Jul.) The August employment report is not going to convince Fed officials to vote for a rate hike later this month, although an increase in December is still likely. 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (July) The decline in the trade deficit to a six-month low of $2.5bn in July, from $4.0bn, is encouraging news for third-quarter GDP growth, although the improvement appears to be partly due to a seasonal... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.4 in August, from 52.6, is another reason to believe that the Fed will take a cautious approach and delay the next rate hike until December. With that... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
