Canada Economics Weekly Employment bonanza looks like another false start We suspect that the jobs bonanza over the past two months does not signal an upturn in the economy. The impressive 117,200 positions created in September and October was the strongest two-month... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Expansion of health insurance not boosting wider economy Although 10 million more people now have health insurance following the introduction of the ACAprovisions last year, the data suggest that trends in healthcare consumption and inflation have... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The rise in the University of Michigan’s measure of consumer confidence to an eight-year high in November means there is a very good chance that retailers’ holiday wishes will be granted. 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q3) Strong job creation, falling unemployment and lower mortgage interest rates all helped the downward trend in the number of US households suffering mortgage payment problems continue into the third... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The 0.3% m/m rise in the dollar value of retail sales in October was even stronger than it looks because the headline figure was depressed by a price-related drop in gasoline station sales. Real... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal government better positioned to provide stimulus Amidst challenging economic times, the Conservative-led government has fulfilled its pledge to eliminate the Federal budget deficit and is now focused on fortifying its majority government in next... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Oct.) The Teranet-National Bank measure shows that house price inflation held at 5.4% in October, where it is likely to remain for the rest of this year. Nevertheless, the regional breakdown continues to... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House prices regain some poise The various measures of house prices appear to be sending different messages, but on balance it looks like price gains have picked up again following outright falls earlier in the year. The Case-... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed running out of reasons not to hike rates With the unemployment rate now within a whisker of most estimates of the natural rate and more comprehensive measures of wage growth showing a clear acceleration, we believe that the markets are too... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Growing pile of foreign cash won’t help the domestic economy The growing pile of cash held abroad by US firms, which has now reached more than $2trn, or 12% of GDP, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the economy, not least because the prospects of that... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Multi-unit home building still in overdrive The unexpected decline in housing starts in October, which was driven by a sharp drop in the volatile multi-unit segment, is likely to be reversed in the coming months, reigniting concerns about... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How might the US midterm results affect US energy policy? The shift in the US political spectrum towards the Republicans could result in the restrictions on US oil exports being eased sooner than otherwise. However, the Republicans are likely to put most of... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Upward revisions to historical GDP don't improve outlook Although the level of GDP over the past three and a half years has been revised noticeably higher, the more recent growth rates of GDP were left largely unchanged. Moreover, the expenditure breakdown... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) The stronger than expected employment gain of 43,100 in October, following a massive 74,100 rise in September, is the most encouraging sign yet that the economy may have shifted into a higher gear... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising wage growth confirms labour slack is shrinking Several factors determine how currency weakness affects firms in different export sectors. Over the past two years, the chemical industry and the car industry have seen the biggest gains in export... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) Although the 214,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in October was slightly below the consensus forecast of 235,000, this was still, on the whole, a strong employment report. In particular, a 638,000 surge... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
