Canada Economics Weekly Can the Bank of Canada fight the US Fed? Household imbalances, an uneven export recovery and, more recently, the slump in oil prices are all downside risks to the economic and inflation outlook. That's three reasons for the Bank of Canada to... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The unexpected decline in the official core inflation rate to 2.1% in November, from 2.3%, supports the Bank of Canada's cautious neutral stance on the interest rate outlook. With the slump in oil... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong in 2014 Our macro forecasts for this year turned out to be broadly correct, with GDP growth accelerating,the unemployment rate falling further and the Fed winding down its asset purchase programme.Our big... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is the Norwegian krone now undervalued? Although the Norwegian krone is on course to be the worst performing G-10 currency this year, having depreciated by almost 20% against the US dollar since January, we doubt that it is now... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack An unambiguous strengthening in activity The incoming news on activity has been unambiguously strong and, when taken together with the boost from the further fall in oil prices, has made us more confident that GDP will grow by at least 3%... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's plans for a mid-2015 lift-off may need to be accelerated The FOMC statement issued today had something for everyone but, on balance, it does not dissuade us that unexpectedly strong employment growth over the next few months could still prompt the Fed to... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Downside risks multiplying Even with the US economic recovery moving into a higher gear, the outlook for Canada's economy is, at best, mediocre. Furthermore, there is now a significant risk that a perfect storm of a collapse in... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The recent slowdown in the growth rates of the monetary aggregates should not be interpreted as a sign that economic growth will soon slow. In fact, the surge in bank lending is a clear indication... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Current Account (Q3) November’s consumer prices figures leave inflation on course to fall someway below 1.0% next summer. But this won’t prevent the Fed from dropping its “considerable time” pledge from its policy... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) The latest homebuilding figures were a mixed bag, with starts declining in November but only because of an upward revision to October’s estimate. On balance, these data support our view that the... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fed can't delay for much longer The outlook for real economic growth was already looking up even before the recent collapse in energy prices. We expect real GDP growth to accelerate from 2.3% this year to 3.0% in 2015, before... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Production (Nov.) & Empire State (Dec.) November’s industrial production figures build on the message from the recent retail sales data, with both showing that economic activity is unambiguously strong. This may well set the tone for the... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slump in oil prices leaves housing looking even more exposed The Bank of Canada admitted last week that the housing market has completely overshot and that the overvaluation is somewhere in the range of 10% to 30%. If we had to pick a number, it would be close... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Nov.) The Teranet-National Bank measure shows that house price inflation was 5.2% in November, down slightly from 5.4%, easily outpacing growth in household incomes. Accordingly, this only adds to our... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence in December to a new 7-year high suggests that the recent strong performance of retail sales will continue in December. 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Small-cap equities may not lag behind for long The unusual gap that has opened up between the economic performance of small firms and the performance of small-cap equity indices is more likely to be closed by a rise in equity prices. After all... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
