US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) The low level of mortgage interest rates, signs of an easing in credit conditions and steady gains in employment have yet to be reflected in the data for mortgage applications. But we are optimistic... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slump in oil price will provide a net boost to US economy The US is still a large net importer of crude oil, so the recent collapse in oil prices will provide a net boost to real economic growth of about $150bn or 0.8% of GDP. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) October’s CoreLogic index does not fundamentally alter the picture of moderating house price pressures. And with housing more or less fairly valued, and the cost of borrowing set to rise, a period in... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pick-up in core inflation won't be sustained The pick-up in the official core inflation measure this year is partly due to one-off factors. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada also pays close attention to alternative measures of underlying... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Faster household spending growth likely in Q4 Faster income growth and lower gasoline prices bode well for household spending prospects this holiday season. We expect somewhat faster consumption growth of 3.0%. 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The continued strength of the ISM manufacturing index is starting to look a bit odd when set against the economic backdrop and the other survey evidence. We remain optimistic about the outlook for... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Will higher interest rates choke off the housing recovery? Housing will be affordable and a touch undervalued even by the end of 2016, despite the prospect of interest rates rising over that period. The upshot is that the recovery in the housing market will... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2014) The bigger than expected gain in the expenditure-based measure of Q3 GDP means that the Bank of Canada will have a harder time next week defending its neutral stance on the interest rate outlook... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Higher core inflation doesn't change rate outlook The rise in core inflation further above target doesn't change the interest rate outlook, since that increase mainly reflects the temporary effects of a weaker currency, which the Bank believes will... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Upside risk of a very strong gain in non-farm payrolls Our econometric model points to a 300,000 gain in payrolls in November although, hedging our bets, we have trimmed our actual forecast to 250,000. Nevertheless, any gain above 200,000 should be enough... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) The modest increase in new home sales in October, which only occurred because September’s reading was itself revised downwards, is consistent with a subdued new homes market. Nevertheless, with credit... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly A bumper holiday shopping season in store The economic backdrop is a much more reliable guide to the holiday shopping season than sales on Black Friday. With employment rising rapidly, real incomes being boosted by falling gasoline prices and... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods/Personal Inc. & Spending (Oct.) October's durable goods and personal income and spending reports together suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be around 2.5% annualised, whereas we had previously expected it to be closer to 3... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September's stronger than expected 0.8% m/m gain in retail sales validates the recent strength in employment growth in suggesting that the economy ended the third quarter on a reasonably solid footing... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low just ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season shouldn’t worry retailers. Much more important is the improvement... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Sep.) The strongest month-on-month increase in house prices in seven months in September is further evidence that, after the recent slowdown, the pace of house price growth is picking up again. But while a... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
