Global Economics Update Tide turning towards stimulus With central banks running out of firepower, public finances in a better state than they have been for a long time and sovereign bond yields exceptionally low, it is not surprising that some... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What might the US election mean for energy commodities? The initial uncertainty created by what would now be a shock win for Donald Trump in November’s US presidential election would surely be negative for the prices of industrial commodities, including... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Tight market conditions drive up house prices A contraction in existing home sales, for the second consecutive month in August, failed to prevent a further decline in inventory levels. That lack of inventory is acting to constrain housing market... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might a Trump win mean for the US dollar? The heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty that would follow a victory for Donald Trump in November’s US presidential election would surely see the dollar weaken against traditional safe... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business outlook improves, but still relatively weak The Bank of Canada’s Autumn Business Outlook Survey shows that the drag from the collapse in crude oil prices last year is finally fading. However, there are still few signs that the recovery will be... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the latest mortgage rule changes derail housing? The housing market dominated the headlines again last week, with news of another sharp decline in Vancouver home sales in September accompanied by the announcement of a package of new measures on... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Election unlikely to cause major shift in fiscal policy At face value, there are substantial differences between the fiscal plans of the two presidential candidates. While Hillary Clinton’s policies would essentially maintain the status quo, Donald Trump’s... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep. 16) The more modest 156,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September, combined with the tick up in the unemployment rate to a five-month high of 5.0%, won’t stop the Fed from hiking interest rates at the... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep. 16) The massive 67,000 increase in employment in September will reassure the Bank of Canada that the economy is still enjoying a decent rebound following the wildfire disruption in the second quarter... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Election doesn’t seem to be holding back the economy There is little evidence that the upcoming presidential election played any role in the weakness of economic growth in the first half of this year or, despite the early optimism, what is shaping up to... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (Aug.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Sep.) Although the trade deficit widened slightly to $40.7bn in August, from $39.5bn, net external trade is now on track to make a big contribution to third-quarter GDP growth. Elsewhere, the big rebound in... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug. 16) The modest decline in the trade deficit to $1.9bn in August, from $2.2bn, was entirely due to price effects, with the real deficit actually widening slightly. Exports increased by 0.6% m/m in nominal... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) The 4.1% m/m rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in September does nothing to change the fact that mortgage demand has stalled since the start of the year. A lack of inventory is... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug. 16) Even accounting for the fact that the first estimate of house prices by CoreLogic is likely to be revised down, it is clear the house prices are accelerating. After seasonal-adjustment prices surged... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep. 16) After a sharp fall in August, the rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in September should soothe fears that the US economy is headed for a serious downturn. Nevertheless, the index remains at a... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Could the neutral rate be even lower? While the decline in the neutral real fed funds rate in recent years can be explained in part by the decline in potential GDP growth, there are other factors, including increased risk aversion, higher... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
