Canada Chart Pack Lower oil prices will hold back economy The slump in the crude oil prices to around US$60 per barrel is a serious threat to domestic business investment and future oil production. With the long-run breakeven cost of most oil sands projects... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Recovery not being driven by a new credit boom The Federal Reserve's third-quarter financial accounts help to dispel two myths about the recovery. First, the pick-up in GDP growth over the past few quarters is not being driven by a renewed boom in... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The strong rise in retail sales in November shows that we were right to dismiss all the reports that holiday sales have been weak. The truth is that the rapid rises in employment mean that this... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How good is the outlook for residential rents? Over the past three years the surge in average house prices has dwarfed the rise in rents. However, over the next few years, those patterns look set to go into reverse, with rents likely to rise at an... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed to drop “considerable time” language The upcoming two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (17th December), should provide a clear signal whether our non-consensus call that the Fed will hike rates as soon as next March is... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed should watch the NFIB not JOLTs The NFIB small business survey is more useful than the JOLTs survey since it tells us what is going to happen to labour market conditions rather than what has just happened. It suggests that payrolls... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Any rebound in house price inflation will be temporary Tighter supply conditions suggest that the moderation in house price inflation may be about to go into reverse. So, too, do solid rates of economic growth and job creation as well as tentative signs... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Elevated pace of home building adding to risk of bust The recent strength in residential building permits relative to housing starts indicate that the pace of home building may accelerate over the near-term. But that only adds to our concern of a... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the lower oil price a threat to US Treasuries? It is sometimes argued that a lower oil price is a threat to Treasuries because oil exporters typically save a larger share of their income than oil importers and are more inclined to put their... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Data Response - Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Trade (Oct.) The weaker than expected 10,700 decline in employment in November and the uptick in the unemployment rate to 6.6%, from 6.5%, can be forgiven since it comes after extraordinarily strong job reports in... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US Treasury yields set to rise as Fed tightens The yield of 10-year US Treasuries has fallen further over the past month. But we expect it to rise as the Fed tightens policy. Admittedly, during the last major tightening cycle in 2004-2006, it... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Odds of another government shutdown still fairly low There is a good chance that Congress will pass an omnibus spending bill this week, which should keep most of the Federal government funded until next October. We still think it is unlikely that there... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) October’s trade data will quite rightly do little to temper the optimism generated by the Employment Report, even though they suggest that net trade will make a slightly weaker contribution to GDP... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The massive 321,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November, together with the 44,000 upward revision to the two preceding months, bolsters our view that the Fed will begin to hike interest rates as... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still neutral on rate outlook The Bank of Canada's last policy statement for the year retained its neutral stance on the interest rate outlook. While acknowledging that inflation has been firmer than it expected, the statement... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Losing faith in the ISM surveys We are concerned that the ISM activity indices are painting a misleading picture of the strength of the economy. We’re inclined to place more faith in the Markit PMIs, which point to more realistic... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
