Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Decent economic growth but challenges lie ahead The Nordic and Swiss economies generally recorded positive growth in Q3 and look set to do so again in Q4. But with growth in their main trading partner, the euro-zone, set to slow and a number of... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does the referendum result mean for Italy’s banks? Following Italy’s referendum last weekend, some form of government support for the country’s weakest banks looks likely. But looking ahead, if an early general election were to take place next year... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Dollar strength and Treasury weakness likely to continue Since Donald Trump won the race to the White House, investors have had to adjust to the prospect of looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy. Not surprisingly, the prospect has caused the dollar to... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s president on the way out, but crisis to persist It now appears only a matter of time until President Park Geun-hye is forced out of office. But even once she is gone, it will be a while before the political situation returns to anything like normal... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2017 Far from being the catastrophe that many had expected 2016 was – as we anticipated – a year of stabilisation and recovery for many emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.) October’s rise in retail sales and November’s decent euro-zone PMIs are consistent with an acceleration of GDP growth in Q4. But with Italy’s “No” vote heightening political risks, the prospects for... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What now for Italy? Italy has taken the first step along a path that could lead it out of the euro-zone. There are still many obstacles to an Italian exit. But as long as the country’s future is uncertain, bond yields... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: More evidence suggesting soft(ish) Brexit likely There have been further indications this week that the government is moving away from some of the “hard Brexit” rhetoric which had emerged in recent months. That said, the government faces a difficult... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Would a lower corporate tax rate boost economic growth? We are sceptical of the claim made last week by Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, that lowering taxes, particularly corporate taxes, will be enough to boost average annual... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crunch time for Italy? A rejection of Matteo Renzi’s proposed constitutional reforms in Sunday’s referendum could plausibly set Italy on a path towards an eventual exit from the euro-zone, an outcome not remotely priced in... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are euro-periphery bond yields heading higher? The backstops that have been put in place to hold the euro-zone together could limit extra upward pressure on Italian – and other euro-periphery – government bond yields if voters in Italy reject... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How gloomy should we be about investment? The past few weeks have brought yet more relatively upbeat economic news and the first estimate of investment in Q3 was no exception. But we wouldn’t read too much into a single set of figures. And... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s populist shift is bad news for the economy The recent shift by the military government in Thailand towards economic populism will help to shore-up demand in the short-term. But the stalling of economic reform is undermining the country’s long... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected rise in retail sales in October will be a welcome sight for retailers in the lead up to the all-important Christmas spending period and suggests that the probable slowdown... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch QE to be extended as risks to growth outlook rise Amid heightened political and economic uncertainty, President Mario Draghi seems set to announce another six-month extension to the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme this month. We expect purchases to... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q3) Today’s capital spending figures suggest that non-residential investment was a touch stronger last quarter than initially estimated. However, the second preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP should confirm... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
