UK Economics Update Likely sticking points no surprise While the second round of negotiations made little substantive progress towards a final agreement, it did highlight the areas where there is the most work to do. Meanwhile, economic data suggested... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso has further to fall The Argentine peso has been the worst-performing EM currency over the past month, and we think it has further to fall. Our forecast is for it to weaken by another 10% against the dollar to 19/$ by end... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP laying the groundwork for 2019 The result of India’s presidential election is due to be announced later today. It won’t have direct implications for the economy since the role of president is largely ceremonial. But the result... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Looking beyond Abe The popularity of the government has suffered severely recently and there is now a real chance that Mr Abe will be out of office before the next legislative elections. A change of prime minister could... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Should the government reappoint Mr Kuroda? While inflation remains well below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, Governor Kuroda deserves credit for a number of radical policy changes. His reappointment would therefore underline the government’s... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela vote changes little, balance of payments strains intensify Yesterday’s referendum organised by Venezuela’s opposition-controlled National Assembly delivered a resounding defeat to the government, but the vote was unofficial and changes little in practice... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Government willing to make concessions Comments from Eurosceptic MPs revealing their indignation at paying an “exit bill” to the EU should not be conflated with the Government’s position. Indeed, the Government seems willing to make... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: New fiscal measures don’t go far enough The change of Romania’s government late last month has prompted a shift in the direction of fiscal policy from loosening to tightening. But the new administration has struggled to put together a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Pick-up in inward FDI has further to run Japan is less welcoming to foreign direct investment than many other rich economies. But cuts to corporate tax rates, the prospect of additional free trade agreements and high profitability are making... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: interest rates to fall further than most expect in 2018 We’ve argued for some time that the debate around monetary policy in Mexico would shift from tightening to loosening over the second half of this year. While the potential for market volatility in the... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Yen to weaken further US 10-year government bond yields have climbed to a two-month high in recent days and we expect them to rise further in coming months. By contrast, the Bank of Japan has underlined its determination... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (May) Machinery orders fell to a one-year low in May. But with capacity shortages intensifying and capital goods shipments rebounding, business investment should continue to expand. 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Is the economy succumbing to Brexit worries? The disappointing tone of this week’s survey evidence and hard economic data has raised concern that the economy is now succumbing to Brexit fears. However, there were probably some non-Brexit related... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly CDU manifesto does little to alter German outlook Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union unveiled its manifesto this week, including plans income tax cuts and increased child benefits. But the proposed giveaways are small and the party, which... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus When and how fast will the MPC tighten? While there is no urgency for the MPC to dampen inflationary pressures, the extraordinary starting point of policy and general resilience of the economy suggest that UK interest rates are likely to... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: ANC divided, but moderates fight back The ANC’s policy conference highlighted divisions within the party, and suggested a significant pushback against its recent leftist turn. While the president’s more populist faction is weakened, a... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
