UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.) July’s RICS survey suggests that the initial shock that followed the referendum eased a little over the month. But with most readings still in negative territory, the data are signalling a slowdown in... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the BoE’s corporate bond buying make a difference? While the uncertainty generated by the EU referendum result clearly means that business investment is likely to fall in the near term, the Bank of England’s corporate bond buying scheme should help to... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Lending Trends (2016 Q2) Mortgage advances for house purchase picked up strongly in June. But with most of the data reflecting transactions agreed pre-referendum, these figures do not give a clean bill of health to the post... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Jul.) Unsurprisingly, on the back of the UK’s vote to leave the EU, commercial property transaction activity fell sharply in July. That said, with no signs of an exodus from London, and overseas investors... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the post-Brexit slump be as bad as the PMIs suggest? The sharp deterioration in July’s Markit/CIPS PMIs have highlighted the danger of a deep recession in the wake of the referendum vote. While it would be unwise to dismiss this warning, there are some... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jul.) July’s BRC sales data show no sign of a slowdown in household spending following the EU referendum. But some other measures have been less positive, and we will have to wait until next week for the... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Growth not strong enough to boost price pressures Weak survey evidence notwithstanding, the economy likely continued to recover in the second quarter, while the labour market has rarely been tighter. However, wage growth remains anaemic and the past... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production growth figure for June, of just 1.1% y/y, adds to the evidence that the economy had slowed sharply even before July’s coup attempt. 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Export growth muted even without a trade war The economy’s reliance on trade with the US means that the current US presidential election campaign could be pivotal for Canada’s export outlook. The big question is whether a President Trump would... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Post-referendum chill starts to show The first set of post-referendum housing market data is consistent with our expectations of a slump in transactions over the next 6 to 12 months. That said, while the picture painted by the main house... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Policy response should cushion hit to growth The MPC’s decision to announce a package of stimulus measures yesterday was no doubt influenced by the thoroughly downbeat tone of this week’s survey data. While it’s clear that growth is set to slow... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jul.) Today’s Halifax index painted a mixed picture for the post-referendum house price reaction. But taking a wider view, there are plenty of signs that house price inflation is set to slow markedly over... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Referendum won’t solve Thailand’s problems Thailand’s upcoming referendum on a new constitution is unlikely to provide a lasting solution to the country’s political problems, and there is a real risk that tensions could once again flare up... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Local polls deliver blow to ANC Yesterday’s local elections suggest that South African elections may be becoming more competitive. Foreign investors will probably welcome the fact that reduced support for the ruling ANC has helped... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Limited Brexit impact, but growth slowing nonetheless The UK’s Brexit vote does not appear to have had a marked adverse impact on the euro-zone economy so far as the main survey indicators rose slightly in July. But Q2 GDP data confirmed that economic... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy shrugs off Brexit vote The initial evidence suggests that the UK’s vote to leave the EU has caused its economy to slow sharply. That has already prompted the Bank of England to ease policy, and we suspect it will cut rates... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
