UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) June’s rise should be the start of an upward trend in inflation in the wake of sterling’s referendum-related slide. But while inflation will probably breach the 2% target in a year’s time, this... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jul.) & E-Z Bank Lending Survey (Q2) July’s German ZEW Survey, which was conducted over the past two weeks, suggests that investors are more worried about the effects of Brexit on the German economy than the financial market response has... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Mainland Europe investment likely to be boosted by Brexit On first sight, European investment turnover in H1 was weaker than in the same period in 2015. However, removing the UK from the analysis means that activity has actually ticked up slightly compared... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank finds positives despite Brexit vote The Riksbank minutes confirm a readiness to act if conditions deteriorate in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. But there are signs of diminishing appetite for further measures from some members. 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic implications of Turkey’s failed coup The near-term economic impact of Friday night’s attempted coup in Turkey will depend on the length and severity of market dislocation, but at the very least the economy is likely to suffer a period of... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The MPC raises the stakes The Monetary Policy Committee’s surprise decision to leave policy on hold at Thursday’s meeting appears primarily to have reflected a desire to combine its remaining policy ammunition into a... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s calls for fiscal stimulus will not be heeded The ECB is set to loosen policy in the coming months. But there is a limit to how much more monetary policy alone can do for growth. In the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote, Mario Draghi’s calls for... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling slump cushions post-referendum hit to equities The UK’s surprise vote to leave the EU sent a shockwave through global markets – but parts of the subsequent post-referendum response have been more muted than previously feared. Clearly, sterling was... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Where to look for signs of Brexit spillovers The market sell-off triggered by the UK’s vote to leave the EU has reversed, but there is still uncertainty about what a post-Brexit Europe will look like and in the meantime signs of strain are... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Brexit vote adds to downside risks The UK’s vote to leave the EU has weakened the outlook for the European Economy. Admittedly, the financial market reaction has been muted and we think that the UK will ultimately fare well outside the... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Peace deal will improve medium-term outlook The likely signing of a final peace agreement between the Colombian government and the country’s largest insurgent group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), will be an historic... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC must deliver in August The Monetary Policy Committee’s inaction today will probably delay a policy response to the UK’s vote to leave the EU by only three weeks. But with market confidence fragile, it is now vitally... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Trade tariffs pose limited threat to euro-zone exports With the exception of the automobile and agricultural industries, WTO tariffs are low enough to imply that even if no trade deal is reached, Brexit will do little direct damage to euro-zone exporters... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit vote clouds the outlook for trade agreements The UK referendum result may ultimately lead to the British government pursuing more liberal trade policies with the rest of the world. But progress is likely to be very slow. Meanwhile, the prospect... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How big is the threat from property? The commercial property sector has so far been the main focal point of Brexit concerns. But there are reasons to be hopeful that its problems won’t push the broader economy into a deep recession. 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Post-Brexit housing market: when will we know? It will be several weeks before we start to get hard data on how the housing market has reacted to the EU referendum outcome. Even then, the initial data may lend themselves to many different... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
