US Economics Update Firms continue to hoard cash overseas The cash held overseas by US firms has continued to grow at a rapid pace, rising to almost $2.5tn in 2015. The substantial tax bill most firms would face if they attempted to bring this cash home... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What are the alternatives to a points-based migration system? The Prime Minister’s rejection of a points-based migration system (PBS) has left several alternatives which may have more beneficial economic effects. In reality though, the UK’s migration policy... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update United Russia’s election victory reinforces Putin’s grip on power The sweeping victory for United Russia in Sunday’s parliamentary vote reinforces the view that President Putin’s grip on power hasn’t been shaken by two years of recession. The direction of policy is... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Further monetary policy easing to come This week’s informal summit in Bratislava is unlikely to be a turning point in the Brexit saga, but itwill highlight how the UK’s vote to leave the bloc is likely to force faster change within the EU... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Jobs market should weather economic slowdown well The extent of any post-referendum slowdown in consumer spending will hinge crucially on developments in the labour market. While last week’s labour market figures showed little sign of a Brexit impact... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Berlin election to add to signs of euro-scepticism This Sunday’s election in Berlin is set to bring more evidence of the growing influence of the far-right AfD. While the party does not have enough support to govern Germany, its rise will encourage a... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending growth slowdown not too sharp Consumer spending growth should slow in the coming few quarters as a result of a number of headwinds. Indeed, we expect the Brexit vote to cause some firms to put a halt on hiring decisions, slowing... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Despite August’s small dip in retail sales, the continued strong trend in spending adds to other evidence suggesting that UK consumers have largely shrugged off the vote for Brexit. 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Corporate bond reform could ease financing constraints Recent measures aimed at reinvigorating India’s domestic corporate bond market are likely to vary in their impact. But overall, the reforms should help to open a new source of financing for Indian... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q2) Looking through the massive distortions in the Irish GDP data, today’s Q2 release suggests that the impressive recovery might have slowed. And survey evidence suggests that growth has slowed further... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: dodging near-term default, kicks can down the road An imminent restructuring of the short term dollar debt of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, means that the severely cash-strapped government should avoid default over the next 12 months... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Jul.) The first release to include post-referendum jobs data suggests that jobs growth is proving resilient. Nevertheless, job creation is likely to slow in the months ahead, but occupier demand is unlikely... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jul./Aug.) Given the lags involved, it’s not particularly surprising that the latest data showed that labour market activity has yet to suffer from the apparent post-referendum slowdown in economic growth. 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus EU prospects threatened by risk of further referendums Since the UK’s Brexit vote, eurosceptic parties elsewhere have increased their calls for referendumson EU or euro membership. While the potential for eurosceptics to gain power and hold votesvaries... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Recession fears continue to ease This week’s data provided further support for our view that the near-term hit to the economy won’t be as severe as many of the pessimistic pre-referendum forecasts. Indeed, while the economy has... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Yields to fall further as monetary policy stays looser for longer The UK’s decision to leave the EU has weakened the economic outlook for the euro-zone and increased expectations that the ECB will keep monetary policy looser for longer. While slower economic growth... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
