Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (June) June’s fall in euro-zone business and consumer confidence suggests that the euro-zone economy was slowing even before the UK voted to leave the EU. 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Ratings upgrade in Hungary will outweigh potential Brexit fallout We do not see the UK’s vote to leave the EU as having a major effect on the CEE economies and property markets. Indeed, with Hungary likely to be buoyed by a second ratings upgrade later this year, we... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jun.) Small business confidence picked up in June and the further improvement predicted for July suggests that manufacturing activity will continue to recover in coming months. 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Brexit volatility won't prompt July rate cut The recent volatility in global financial markets triggered by the UK’s vote to leave the EU is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 1.75% to 1.50% at its... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform will prove harder to implement Measures announced last week to further ease restrictions on foreign direct investment into India should help at the margins to build on one of the main policy successes of the Modi government so far... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the political fallout on CEE from Brexit There are already signs that the UK’s vote to leave the EU is emboldening populist and anti-EU sentiment in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Given that the region is a major beneficiary from the EU’s... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sterling & UK equities – no 1992 redux Sterling’s slide in the aftermath of the UK’s vote on EU membership is reminiscent of its slump after the country withdrew from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in 1992. Not surprisingly... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brexit roils Lat Am markets but economic fallout limited The UK’s vote to leave the European Union has triggered sharp falls in financial markets in Latin America but the economic fallout for the region should be limited. The UK is a relatively small export... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Brexit not a major threat Last week’s vote by the UK to leave the EU isn’t a major threat to the Australian and New Zealand economies, especially when the resulting volatility in the financial markets appears to be fading. 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update “Brexit” heralds even looser global monetary conditions The latest monetary data are consistent with a gradual slowdown in advanced economies, but do not point to a collapse in growth. Looking ahead, global central banks are likely to respond to the UK... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How does markets’ Brexit shock compare to past crises? While Friday’s largest-ever daily drop in sterling and the significant hit to UK equities following the vote to leave the EU were undoubtedly extremely significant, the overall degree of market... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Leave vote will weaken spending, but not dramatically so Given the prolonged period of political and economic uncertainty ahead, it would be surprising if there weren’t at least some adverse impact on consumer confidence and hence on consumer spending as a... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Brexit vote weakens outlook for euro-zone growth While the UK’s vote for Brexit will have only a small direct effect on euro-zone trade this year and next, the indirect effects on confidence and financial markets may be more serious. We have... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s new government set to be a fragile one Despite unexpected gains for the right in Spain, an anti-austerity left-wing coalition may now be more likely than opinion polls had suggested. Either way, the new government will be a very fragile... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Who will succeed Governor Rajan at the RBI? Following the announcement earlier this month from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan that he will be stepping down at the end of his first term in September, speculation has been... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
