Africa Economics Update Zambia faces a painful period of post-election austerity Zambia’s disputed election has raised the risk of a period of political uncertainty, but with the vote out of the way, we think that it’s now likely that the government will agree to a long-delayed... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun./Jul.) Today’s data showed that the labour market was strong prior to the referendum and the leave vote doesn’t appear to have caused any immediate damage. But the solid figures shouldn’t stop the MPC from... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q2) Thailand’s growth slowed last quarter, and the recent bombings in some of the country’s key tourist destinations present a significant downside risk to economic activity. 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The conventional wisdom is that the Bank of Japan’s large-scale bond purchases will soon dry up the pool of available assets. By contrast, we believe that QQE can continue for several more years. One... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Resilient consumers help to limit post-vote hit This week’s data provided more evidence that business investment and the property market will be hit hard by the leave vote. But with signs of resilience in consumer spending, and the Bank of England... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Have consumers shrugged off Brexit? Last week’s figures suggested that households haven’t been ruffled much by the leave vote. Admittedly, we are wary about reading too much into these relatively upbeat figures. Temporary factors such... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Very low gilt yields are here to stay While some of the forces recently putting strong downward pressure on gilt yields may ease a bit in the coming months, the prospect of a further prolonged period of ultra-loose monetary policy... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.) July’s RICS survey suggests that the initial shock that followed the referendum eased a little over the month. But with most readings still in negative territory, the data are signalling a slowdown in... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the BoE’s corporate bond buying make a difference? While the uncertainty generated by the EU referendum result clearly means that business investment is likely to fall in the near term, the Bank of England’s corporate bond buying scheme should help to... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Lending Trends (2016 Q2) Mortgage advances for house purchase picked up strongly in June. But with most of the data reflecting transactions agreed pre-referendum, these figures do not give a clean bill of health to the post... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Jul.) Unsurprisingly, on the back of the UK’s vote to leave the EU, commercial property transaction activity fell sharply in July. That said, with no signs of an exodus from London, and overseas investors... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the post-Brexit slump be as bad as the PMIs suggest? The sharp deterioration in July’s Markit/CIPS PMIs have highlighted the danger of a deep recession in the wake of the referendum vote. While it would be unwise to dismiss this warning, there are some... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jul.) July’s BRC sales data show no sign of a slowdown in household spending following the EU referendum. But some other measures have been less positive, and we will have to wait until next week for the... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Growth not strong enough to boost price pressures Weak survey evidence notwithstanding, the economy likely continued to recover in the second quarter, while the labour market has rarely been tighter. However, wage growth remains anaemic and the past... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production growth figure for June, of just 1.1% y/y, adds to the evidence that the economy had slowed sharply even before July’s coup attempt. 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Export growth muted even without a trade war The economy’s reliance on trade with the US means that the current US presidential election campaign could be pivotal for Canada’s export outlook. The big question is whether a President Trump would... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
