UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets’ referendum jitters go global Brexit fears have started to take their toll in global – as well as UK – markets in the past week as opinion polls showed support for Leave rising less than a week before the EU referendum. In... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China would shrug off a Brexit vote A vote by the UK to leave the EU on Thursday is unlikely to have much impact on China. The economic and financial linkages between the UK and China are small, at least as far as China is concerned. In... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Brexit uncertainty not weighing on consumer spending Consumers appear to have shrugged off EU referendum uncertainty which should help prevent GDP growth from slowing much in Q2. And spending should continue to grow at rates around its historical... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the risks from populism Concerns about the emergence of economic populism in Central and Eastern Europe are on the rise once again. This is already weighing on local financial markets and, although it’s not likely to have an... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia need not fear a Brexit The sharp falls in equity prices in Australia in response to the rise in the chance that the UK may vote to leave the EU seem overdone. A Brexit is unlikely to be a disaster for the global economy... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Vote for Brexit may prove to be a damp squib There are good reasons to believe that the market fireworks after a UK vote to leave the EU (‘ Brexit ’) would not be as dramatic as many expect. Indeed, while the initial impact on the pound would... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What to expect after the referendum result We have written plenty about the economic effects of both a “remain” and “leave” vote, but in reality it is not that clear-cut. In either scenario, whether the vote is won by a small or large margin... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Brexit uncertainty bites as referendum looms The increase in the probability of a Brexit following June’s referendum, as polls have shifted towards “Leave”, has rattled markets recently. Trade-weighted sterling has resumed its slide, while... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Referendum effects muddy picture for MPC The MPC today repeated its warnings about the potential adverse effects on the economy of a Brexit , but reiterated that the policy implications of a Brexit would not be clear-cut. Meanwhile, if the... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB holds back ammunition for possible Brexit The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left interest rates on hold as expected today, but it will continue to intervene in FX markets if needed, as is likely in the run-up to the UK referendum. An actual... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First reflections on Temer’s first month Michel Temer’s first month as interim president of Brazil has been a mix of the good (eye-catching economic reforms) and the bad (three members of government, including the transparency minister, have... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would Brexit affect Sweden? The UK is Sweden’s fourth largest export market, but the direct trade impact of a Brexit would probably be small. A Brexit could have a bigger impact on Sweden through its effect on the krona . And... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Government’s austerity warnings don’t look plausible Today’s warnings from the “Remain” camp that the Government would ramp up austerity immediately in a post-Brexit emergency Budget do not look very plausible. It is more likely that the Government... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How would Brexit affect Sweden? The UK is Sweden’s fourth largest export market, but the direct trade impact of a Brexit would probably be small. A Brexit could have a bigger impact on Sweden through its effect on the krona. And... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would Brexit mean for Ireland? Ireland is the most exposed euro-zone country to any economic fallout from a Brexit . But just as we think that the economic costs of a Brexit for the UK are often overstated, we think that the Irish... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC point to balanced market by the end of the year OPEC’s oil production slipped in May as disruptions to output in Nigeria outweighed increases in production elsewhere. Meanwhile, the group left all of its major forecasts unchanged but suggested that... 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
