UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Fiscal watchdog joins debate on Brexit impact This week brought the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) first assessment of the effect of the Brexit vote on the economy and the public finances. This was more upbeat than had been anticipated... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Could repealing Dodd-Frank boost the wider economy? With the Republicans maintaining control of both Houses of Congress, Donald Trump’s election victory has raised the prospect that the post-crisis Dodd-Frank Act, which overhauled the financial sector... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for EM currencies? Emerging market currencies have been one of the major casualties of the global sell-off since the November 8th US elections. Some, including the Turkish lira and South African rand, are likely to... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Taking stock of Trump’s victory The prospect of a large fiscal stimulus under a Trump presidency has prompted us to raise our forecasts for US growth and inflation but we have left our economic forecasts for the rest of the world... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should investors be concerned by the rise in Italian bond yields? Italian government bond yields have almost doubled over the past few weeks. Nevertheless, we do not see this as a reason for property investors to panic and expect prime Italian property yields to... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Anti-corruption drive has further to run The government’s shock demonetisation announcement earlier this month was its boldest measure yet to tackle corruption and formalise large parts of the shadow economy, but it is unlikely to be the... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Following five straight monthly gains, the small decline in the manufacturing PMI in November is hardly a disaster. In fact, the survey suggests that price pressures have started to strengthen again. 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump and the fallout for EMs in five key points We’ve written lots over the past two weeks about Donald Trump’s victory and the implications for EMs. While much remains uncertain, in this Update we draw out five early takeaways. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Having slowed in Q3, we expect growth in Emerging Europe to recover over the course of the next year as Russia continues to pull out of recession and investment in the Central European economies... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would Trump’s repatriation tax boost the US stock market? While Donald Trump’s plan to tax retained corporate income held offshore at 10% could encourage US multinationals to repatriate funds, we doubt that it would provide a big boost to the S&P 500. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update President Trump and the implications for the Middle East Two weeks on from Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election and we’re starting to get a sense of the likely shape and priorities of his administration. The inherent contradictions in Mr... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No post-Trump overhaul in our forecasts While many analysts are scrambling to revise down their economic forecasts for Mexico and the rest of Latin America in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory, for now we see little reason to make... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing and Trump add to list of economy’s woes The economy has recovered from the temporary disruption caused by the wildfires earlier this year and the slump in mining-related investment, triggered by the collapse in oil prices last year, is... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump fiscal stimulus will boost GDP growth The prospect of a major fiscal stimulus means that we are formally raising our forecasts for real GDP growth, inflation and interest rates. There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding exactly... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tweaking – not slashing – our Mexico forecasts Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US election has led to a rash of sizeable downgrades to growth forecasts for Mexico, including several predictions of a recession. But we think the impact over... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What if Italy votes “no”? The final opinion polls ahead of Italy’s forthcoming referendum suggest that the public will reject the proposed constitutional reforms. The low level of bond yields suggests that investors are not... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
