US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) Existing home sales edged out a small gain in June, helped by a rise in first-time buyer numbers. But the months’ supply of homes for sale has fallen to its joint-lowest level for 11 years, and the... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putting the Turkish market sell-off into context Turkey’s financial markets have fallen sharply following Friday night’s attempted coup and the subsequent backlash by the government, but the reaction appears relatively mild given the enormity of... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What does Brexit mean for the public finances? It appears likely that the Chancellor won’t ramp up austerity to offset the negative impact of Brexiton the public finances. Instead, we think he will increase borrowing further relative to... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The outlook for mortgage rates following Brexit The downward pressure on mortgage interest rates from Brexit already appears to be unwinding, with 30-year fixed rates increasing last week from 3.60% to 3.65%. Given we expect Brexit will have a... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC unfazed by rise in political risk The Turkish MPC’s decision to cut its overnight lending rate by a further 25bp today suggests the Council views the market volatility stemming from Friday night’s attempted coup (and growing concerns... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Policy response should cushion the hit from leave vote The UK’s vote to leave the European Union has plunged the country into a period of almost unprecedented uncertainty. But we remain a bit less pessimistic than some others over the economic impact. So... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank finds positives despite Brexit vote The Riksbank minutes confirm a readiness to act if conditions deteriorate in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. But there are signs of diminishing appetite for further measures from some members. 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) June’s rise should be the start of an upward trend in inflation in the wake of sterling’s referendum-related slide. But while inflation will probably breach the 2% target in a year’s time, this... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jul.) & E-Z Bank Lending Survey (Q2) July’s German ZEW Survey, which was conducted over the past two weeks, suggests that investors are more worried about the effects of Brexit on the German economy than the financial market response has... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Mainland Europe investment likely to be boosted by Brexit On first sight, European investment turnover in H1 was weaker than in the same period in 2015. However, removing the UK from the analysis means that activity has actually ticked up slightly compared... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank finds positives despite Brexit vote The Riksbank minutes confirm a readiness to act if conditions deteriorate in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. But there are signs of diminishing appetite for further measures from some members. 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic implications of Turkey’s failed coup The near-term economic impact of Friday night’s attempted coup in Turkey will depend on the length and severity of market dislocation, but at the very least the economy is likely to suffer a period of... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The MPC raises the stakes The Monetary Policy Committee’s surprise decision to leave policy on hold at Thursday’s meeting appears primarily to have reflected a desire to combine its remaining policy ammunition into a... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s calls for fiscal stimulus will not be heeded The ECB is set to loosen policy in the coming months. But there is a limit to how much more monetary policy alone can do for growth. In the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote, Mario Draghi’s calls for... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling slump cushions post-referendum hit to equities The UK’s surprise vote to leave the EU sent a shockwave through global markets – but parts of the subsequent post-referendum response have been more muted than previously feared. Clearly, sterling was... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Where to look for signs of Brexit spillovers The market sell-off triggered by the UK’s vote to leave the EU has reversed, but there is still uncertainty about what a post-Brexit Europe will look like and in the meantime signs of strain are... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
