UK Economics Update What to expect on EU referendum day and shortly after The latest Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggested that the sector began Q2 on a poor footing and will increase fears that the economic recovery will slow further inQ2 as the EU referendum nears... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Slowdown not all due to Brexit fears GDP data released this week suggests that Brexit uncertainty probably weighed on growth in Q1. But other factors were at play too. And recent surveys generally indicate that the impact of Brexit... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Putting the retail sector’s productivity problem in context The retail sector’s productivity performance has been better than it has often been given credit for. That said, with the sector particularly hard-hit by the new National Living Wage, boosting... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much of Q1 slowdown is due to Brexit fears? Softening activity indicators and the moderation in quarterly GDP growth from 0.6% in Q4 to 0.4% in Q1 have fuelled a number of warnings, notably from Chancellor George Osborne and the OECD, that the... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain will continue to miss its fiscal targets Political uncertainty and slowing growth imply that Spain’s budget deficit targets are too optimistic. As such, Spain looks set to breach the EU’s 3% deficit limit for at least two more years. And, in... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: IMF takes centre stage Events this month have underlined the continuing importance of the IMF for many economies across Africa. On 6 th April the government of Angola requested an IMF bailout to help stabilise an economy... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Don’t get carried away with Saudi Arabia’s reform plans Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has created a buzz with his ambitious plans to transform the Kingdom’s economy, but we would caution against getting carried away. The... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.) April’s rise in euro-zone business and consumer confidence does not change the bigger picture that growth in the euro-zone appears to be slowing. 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is sterling’s recent rally here to stay? Sterling’s recent rally as expectations of a Brexit have fallen suggests that the pound will rise further if the UK votes to remain in the EU. But there are reasons why the rally is unlikely to last. 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Apr.) The fall in small business confidence in April reflects seasonal patterns. Still, the survey suggests that economic activity remains sluggish. 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” provides few new details The Saudi government’s “Vision 2030” plan outlined today has been welcomed by the local financial markets, but it provided few fresh details on the reform agenda and missed key issues such as... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Power rationing another blow to Venezuela’s economy Venezuela’s acute power crisis, which has now forced the government into full-blown rationing, has dealt yet another blow to the beleaguered economy. We reckon that the power crisis could subtract... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Uncertainty starts to weigh With only two months left until the referendum, we will be publishing a weekly Brexit Watch to help clients keep track of all the latest developments. Evidence that the economy is beginning to suffer... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Gilt yields to rise regardless of referendum outcome It is possible that an out vote in the EU referendum could push up mortgage interest rates. But if it did, we suspect any rise would be modest and that the drivers of that rise would not be those... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Both sides overstate effect of Brexit on trade At the heart of most of last week’s wealth of Brexit-related publications and comments was the issue of what will happen to trade if the UK votes to leave. As with pretty much all aspects of the... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Would Brexit raise mortgage rates? It is possible that an out vote in the EU referendum could push up mortgage interest rates. But if it did, we suspect any rise would be modest and that the drivers of that rise would not be those... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
