Commodities Update China concerns could soon replace Brexit fears With fears over the impact of the UK’s potential exit from the EU having faded, the focus of commodity markets may soon return to China’s economy and currency. The third successive monthly fall in... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Falling oil supplies trump Brexit concerns The sharp drops in the prices of riskier assets, including oil, after the UK voted to leave the EU have dominated headlines. However, oil prices are now more or less back to their pre-Brexit levels... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jun.) While the UK Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggests that the manufacturing sector re-gained some vigour in June, it probably won’t be enough to prevent the sector from slipping back into recession... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Which industries suffer most from the stronger yen? While the yen has weakened slightly over the past week as concerns about the impact of Brexit have faded, it is still around 20% stronger than it was at the start of the year. A stronger currency... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2) While the Tankan’s headline index held steady last quarter, the survey doesn’t capture the impact of Brexit in full. What’s more, conditions for non-manufacturers worsened. 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Brexit is the least of Canada’s worries The UK referendum vote to leave the European Union has triggered a renewed turmoil in financialmarkets, but we doubt the decision will damage Canada’s economy in any meaningful way. Despitethe strong... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts in the wake of the “Brexit” vote Our existing market forecasts were premised on an assumption that the UK would vote to remain in the EU. After the vote to leave, we have allowed the initial dust to settle, reviewed our projections... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why have equity markets rebounded after the Brexit vote? There are several plausible reasons why the prices of equities and other riskier assets have recovered after the UK’s vote to leave the EU. Some of these may be temporary, notably short covering. More... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Naira float, Brexit rattle local markets The key decision affecting African markets this month was Nigeria’s long-awaited currency reforms, which sent the naira tumbling. The effect of Britain’s vote to leave the EU was relatively limited... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What have we learned since the referendum? While it’s extremely early days yet, developments in the week since the EU referendum have not altered our view that the economic damage will be smaller than others have suggested. 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) Today’s Quarterly National Accounts and Balance of Payments data for Q1 highlighted the imbalances in the UK economy which should come under more scrutiny in light of last week’s Brexit vote. 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jun.) Consumer sentiment remained resilient in the run up to the referendum, suggesting that consumer spending will have prevented the economy from slowing too much in the second quarter. But it will be... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging European markets underperform after Brexit vote 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (May) The sharp fall in industrial production in May suggests that the economy slowed in the second quarter following a solid rise in GDP in Q1. We retain our forecast that the Bank of Japan will announce... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack MENA countries go calling to the IMF The return of several countries to the IMF for financial support over the past month underlines the severity of long-standing balance of payments problems in parts of the region. In Jordan and Tunisia... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s markets calm after Brexit The renminbi has weakened against the US dollar following the UK’s decision last week to leave the EU. But there are no signs of renewed panic about the currency.Meanwhile, equity markets have held... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
