UK Economics Weekly What will the policymakers do? Following the vote for a Brexit, a considerable amount of uncertainty hangs over the UK, which is likely to weigh on activity in the short term. However, we think that the near-term hit to the economy... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q2 2016 The latest surveys of banks, companies and households in China released today suggest that business conditions and consumer confidence both improved this quarter. However, demand for loans remained... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update “Brexit” is not a disaster for the world economy Once the dust has settled, the global economic implications of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union are likely to prove much less dramatic than many had suggested during the past few weeks. The... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen unlikely to hold on to post-Brexit-vote strength The UK’s vote to leave the EU has pushed the yen to levels last seen when Quantitative and Qualitative Easing was first launched, while the Nikkei has slumped by 8%. These moves increase the chances... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Global Markets Update - Has the "Brexit" storm already passed? Not surprisingly, the outcome of yesterday’s referendum in the UK has hit sterling hard and driven down the prices of equities and most commodities. At the same time, it has boosted the “safe-haven”... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update UK vote for ‘Brexit’ not a game-changer for commodities The UK’s vote to leave the EU has predictably undermined the prices of industrial commodities, including oil (which initially fell by around 5% in US dollar terms) and copper (-3%), while boosting... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Currency moves, not economic links, main Brexit concern The direct economic implications for China from the UK’s decision to leave the EU are small. A greater concern is that the renminbi could come under pressure to weaken against a resurgent dollar in... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Referendum unlikely to be the catalyst for the next crash Victory for the Leave campaign in yesterday’s EU referendum clearly poses some downside risks to the commercial property market outlook in the UK. Yet we think that fears that the result will trigger... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Out vote will hit transactions harder than house prices The electorate’s vote to take the UK out the European Union presents another potential headwind to a housing market already labouring under worryingly high prices. But if we are right that the economy... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Brexit vote rattles EMs The vote by the UK to leave the EU is already creating a flight to safety, with financial markets in EMs that have deeper and more liquid markets (Mexico), large current account deficits (South Africa... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is Article 50 the only way for the UK to leave the EU? Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union provides a legal route by which the UK can withdraw from the EU. But could the UK bypass Article 50? And what are the chances that the vote to leave could... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian economies and markets should shrug off Brexit With the region’s trade ties to the UK relatively weak, the direct economic implications for Emerging Asia of the UK’s vote to leave the EU should be small. Equities and currencies have weakened, but... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update UK vote raises longer-term risks to Eastern Europe The UK’s vote to leave the EU in yesterday’s referendum is likely to cause further turbulence in Central and Eastern European (CEE) financial markets in the coming days and weeks. As things stand, we... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update UK’s vote to leave EU raises doubts over future of Europe The UK’s vote to leave the European Union will have substantial negative effects on the European economy and raises serious doubts over the future of both the EU itself and the currency union. 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit won’t destroy the UK economy The vote to leave the EU has clearly weakened the near-term outlook for the UK economy. But we still think that the ultimate damage will be smaller than many estimates have suggested. 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What will the Philippines look like under Duterte? Rodrigo Duterte, who will become the next president of the Philippines on 30 th June, will take over an economy in good health. We believe the foundations are in place for growth to remain strong, but... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
