Japan Economics Weekly Weak start to spring wage negotiations The early results of the Shunto spring wage negotiations have been disappointing to policymakers hoping to see faster wage gains. The major carmakers and electronics firms have agreed smaller base pay... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Investment activity showing tentative signs of improvement The government’s plans to boost capital expenditure should help sustain the recent tentative pick-up in investment activity. But slow movement on the reform front means that a spectacular rebound is... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update NPC puts short-run growth ahead of reform The National People’s Congress has ended today leaving us still feeling confident in our relatively upbeat view of the immediate outlook for the economy. But the leadership’s continued tentative... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should UK retailers fear a Brexit? The possibility of a Brexit has raised a number of worries for British retailers, including the prospect of falling consumer demand and rising imported goods costs. But while the short-term impact of... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jan.) Today’s data on machinery orders suggest that capital spending will continue to expand this quarter. While a near-term slowdown is likely, we expect the recovery in capital expenditure to resume... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch referendum on Ukraine another threat to the EU While a ‘no’ vote in the upcoming Dutch referendum on the European Union’s Association Agreement with Ukraine might have few direct effects, such an outcome would illustrate the Dutch population’s... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) Corporate bond yields have collapsed since the Bank of Japan adopted negative interest rates. However, with bonds only accounting for a quarter of corporate debt, bank lending rates would also have to... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia holds rate, but all eyes on BNM governor succession Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today kept its policy rate on hold at 3.25% at a monetary policy meeting that will be Governor Zeti’s last after 16 years at the helm. We continue to think rates will be... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Feb.) After a surprisingly-strong start to the year, February’s BRC sales figures showed retail sales growth moderating. With temporary supports set to fade, 2016 looks likely to be a solid, rather than... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Storm clouds gather over Lebanon Recent announcements by the Gulf countries that they will cut off financial support to Lebanon and slap a travel ban on the country are likely to have a larger political than economic impact. But if... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Life in the slow lane for Asia’s Tiger economies With productivity slowing and working age populations set to fall sharply, economic growth in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea is likely to average little more than 2% over the coming years... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Investment would bear the immediate brunt of a Brexit While we think the UK will do well either inside or outside the EU in the long run , there is potential for a short-term hit to investment in particular. But we don’t think that this would derail the... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress Official statements at the National People’s Congress have signalled, as expected, that the immediate economic priority is to support growth including with a looser fiscal stance and more monetary... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slovakia: hung parliament unlikely to dampen near-term growth The divided result in Slovakia’s parliamentary election raises the prospect of a period of political uncertainty and, quite possibly, the need for a second election. However, we don’t think this will... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Take referendum propaganda with a pinch of salt Capital Economics does not have a strong axe to grind either way on the EU question. But we do feel that many of the arguments put forward on both sides are exaggerated – including those from the... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Law and Justice’s first few months in power Poland’s Law and Justice Party has had a whirlwind first few months in power and, in this Watch, we look at the policies introduced so far. The short point is that fiscal measures have been more or... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
