Latin America Economics Update First reflections on Temer’s first month Michel Temer’s first month as interim president of Brazil has been a mix of the good (eye-catching economic reforms) and the bad (three members of government, including the transparency minister, have... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would Brexit affect Sweden? The UK is Sweden’s fourth largest export market, but the direct trade impact of a Brexit would probably be small. A Brexit could have a bigger impact on Sweden through its effect on the krona . And... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Government’s austerity warnings don’t look plausible Today’s warnings from the “Remain” camp that the Government would ramp up austerity immediately in a post-Brexit emergency Budget do not look very plausible. It is more likely that the Government... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How would Brexit affect Sweden? The UK is Sweden’s fourth largest export market, but the direct trade impact of a Brexit would probably be small. A Brexit could have a bigger impact on Sweden through its effect on the krona. And... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would Brexit mean for Ireland? Ireland is the most exposed euro-zone country to any economic fallout from a Brexit . But just as we think that the economic costs of a Brexit for the UK are often overstated, we think that the Irish... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC point to balanced market by the end of the year OPEC’s oil production slipped in May as disruptions to output in Nigeria outweighed increases in production elsewhere. Meanwhile, the group left all of its major forecasts unchanged but suggested that... 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s election confirms continuation of market-friendly policy Pedro Pablo Kuczynski’s (PPK) victory in Peru’s presidential election is likely to mean the continuation of the current government’s market-friendly economic policy. While there is a risk that his... 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly “Brexit” risks coming into focus Commodity prices have generally risen in the past week, helped by further dollar weakness. However, sentiment already appears to be turning more cautious on renewed concerns over the health of the... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Leave camp momentum boosts rate cut chances Brexit concerns have intensified over the past week, with polls very close, and this was clearly reflected in falling interest rate expectations (and consequently sterling). But despite 10-year gilt... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs well placed to weather a Brexit vote A vote by the UK to leave the EU would likely cause ripples rather than shockwaves in the emerging world. Trade ties with the UK are too small to have a material impact on EM exporters. And while a... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Should Asia worry about Brexit? The referendum on Britain leaving the EU has dominated international headlines over the last week, with some commentators warning that a “Brexit” would have significant implications well beyond Europe... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How big a boost might “Brexit” provide to gold? There appears to be an increasingly close relationship between the gold price and the chances of the UK voting to leave the European Union, as implied by bookmakers’ odds. This is consistent, of... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How UK politics could affect post-Brexit EU relationship A key uncertainty following the EU referendum on 23rd June will be the impact of the vote on domestic political factors. If the UK votes to leave, the political situation will have a key bearing on... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Upper House elections unlikely to revive Abenomics The upcoming Upper House elections should solidify the government’s position even if the LDP/New Komeito coalition fails to achieve the hoped for two-thirds majority. However, hopes that a strong... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would “Brexit” mean for commodities? A UK vote to leave the European Union (“ Brexit ”) would presumably have a negative impact on global business and investor confidence. This in turn is likely to undermine the prices of industrial... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor “Brexit” poses little risk to EM Trade South Africa’s April output figures suggest that, after a disastrous Q1, the economy improved a touch going into Q2. But the country will still struggle to avoid a technical recession. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
