Latin America Economics Update Argentina: change is nigh Opinion polls are pointing to a narrow victory for pro-reform candidate Mauricio Macri in Sunday’s presidential election in Argentina and, if he prevails, the outlook for the economy would undoubtedly... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Abenomics has not altered Japan’s long-term outlook Output may have contracted again last quarter, but Japan’s growth has actually been fairly healthy by past standards since Mr Abe returned to power, despite stronger demographic headwinds. But the... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Paris attacks loosen Europe’s fiscal shackles? While fiscal authorities may tolerate increased security spending by some governments after the Paris terror attacks, suggestions that Europe’s budget rules will be swept aside are over the top. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus What next for India’s consumers? India’s consumer market is often the subject of frenzied interest among investors and commentators but, in recent years, growth has been held back by both cyclical and structural headwinds. In this... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Nov.) & Business Sales (Sep.) The rebound in the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence measure to a four-month high of 93.1 in November, from 90.0, presumably reflects the rebound in stock markets and the resilience of... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the G20 Antalya summit The annual G20 leaders’ summit, to be held in Turkey on 15-16 th November, should be less acrimonious than many previous gatherings. Tensions over exchange rate policy, global imbalances, fiscal and... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy could be helped by quick EU referendum We have known for some time the Government’s broad objectives for its negotiations with the EU and David Cameron’s letter last week to the European Council President Donald Tusk contained little... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: New cabinet faces daunting economic challenges Investors are likely to welcome the long-delayed appointment of a federal cabinet in Nigeria. But the newly-appointed ministers face an up-hill battle to revive the economy, and it isn’t clear how... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fall of Portuguese Government shows austerity is failing Today’s vote of no confidence in the Portuguese Government seems set to usher in a renewed push against austerity and a further rise in bond yields. The one hope is that mounting public resistance to... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for Myanmar after the election? The victory for Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) party in Sunday’s elections is a welcome step forward for Myanmar. However, the country continues to face major challenges. For... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BJP defeat in Bihar dampens reform prospects The heavy defeat for Prime Minister Modi and the BJP in the Bihar state assembly election suggests that political goodwill towards the winners of last year’s general election is beginning to run out... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB can’t rely on Fed to do its work With the composite euro-zone PMI pointing to steady growth and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen pushing the euro down to a four-month low against the dollar, further policy loosening by... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising incomes remain key to China’s future food demand The end of China’s one-child policy raises a number of questions about future demand for agricultural commodities. However, we think that economic growth and rising incomes will remain the key... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Economic boost from closer China-Taiwan relationship has been small Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-jeou, will try to use his meeting with the Chinese president Xi Jinping in Singapore on Saturday to highlight the big improvement in cross-strait relations during his... 5th November 2015 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Turkish relief rally unlikely to last The relief rally in Turkish markets is likely to fizzle out before long as it becomes clear that the AK Party will deliver more of the same. Our expectation is that equities will lag behind those... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets welcome AK victory, economic problems remain The Turkish lira and stock market have rallied following Sunday’s election results, which delivered the ‘Goldilocks’ scenario of a small AK party majority in parliament. This has alleviated concerns... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
