UK Economics Weekly How will the MPC respond to the EU referendum? The MPC’s attempt to base its forecasts on the UK remaining in the EU suggests that it believes trade-weighted sterling will rise by around 5% on a vote to stay. But it also implies that it doesn’t... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Slowdown isn’t just about Brexit This week’s dismal trade, industrial production and construction data has further intensified concerns that Brexit uncertainty is having an effect on activity. Nonetheless, they also highlight that... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Is Thailand about to boil over again? Thailand’s already disappointing recovery could be derailed by yet another flare-up of its longstanding political crisis this year, with the controversial draft constitution presenting a clear... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Brexit fears still weighing on sterling despite rally Having fallen since mid-November, trade-weighted sterling has recovered a little over the past month. But with the pound still far below its previous peak, and demand for protection against further... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Reduced scope to catch up will limit EM and global growth The rapid expansion of emerging economies (EMs) over the past decade or two has reduced the scope for further “catch-up” growth. Along with this, many EMs are likely to continue falling short of their... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Low inflation means rates will remain low in the Philippines With the economy growing at a decent pace but inflationary pressures under control, today’s decision by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 4.0% came as... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How big a deal is immigration from the EU? This morning’s ONS release, showing there has been a large recent rise in short-term EU immigration, will probably lead to exaggerated claims about the UK needing to regain control of its borders... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Senate votes to put Dilma on trial, what comes next? After a rollercoaster week, in which impeachment proceedings were suspended and then reinstated, Brazil’s Senate has voted 55-22 to put President Rousseff on trial. A new government under Vice... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the economic slowdown about more than Brexit? Brexit concerns have not been the only driver of the recent slowdown, suggesting that we should not expect a particularly big rebound in activity if the UK votes to stay in the EU in June. At the same... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: taking stock of the Pemex bailout The Mexican government’s bailout of the country’s state-owned energy company Pemex does not have major fiscal implications. The costs are manageable and non-recurring, so should not require... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr.) Following two months of weak official retail sales figures, April’s BRC sales data dented hopes that the weakness would prove temporary. Nonetheless, we still think that talk of a marked collapse in... 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How big a deal would Brexit be for the world economy? If the UK votes to leave the EU, there would probably be some negative fallout for the UK itself and other European economies due to the resulting uncertainty about their future economic relationship... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for the Philippines? Rodrigo Duterte, the mayor of the fourth largest city in the Philippines, looks to have won today’s presidential election by a comfortable margin. Given how little has been said on the campaign trail... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Ireland’s new Government keep the recovery going? The formation of a new Irish government has removed some short-term political uncertainty. And the outlook for the economy over the coming years is fairly bright. That said, the government can do... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi reshuffle unlikely to result in drastic change The government reshuffle in Saudi Arabia announced over the weekend is unlikely to herald a major shift in economic policy, although it may strengthen the Kingdom’s commitment to its oil market... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Uncertainty hits business surveys The gloomy tone of this week’s PMI data provided further concrete evidence that the uncertainty generated ahead of the EU referendum is weighing on activity. As with last week’s GDP data, other... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
