UK Economics Update Treasury’s Brexit recession warning seems overdone We think the Treasury (HMT) report, published today, suggesting that the UK will go into recession if it leaves the EU goes a bit far. Existing trading relationships will remain in place over the two... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would Brexit really be a game-changer for global markets? The trends in the opinion polls and in bookmakers’ odds suggest that a UK vote to leave the EU (“ Brexit ”) would now be a major surprise. Given this, the initial uncertainty caused by Brexit would... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would Brexit mean for Eastern Europe? With one month to go to the UK’s referendum on whether to remain in or leave the EU, concerns are growing in some quarters that a “Brexit” vote could harm Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). As things... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Remain poll surge eases markets’ Brexit jitters This week saw the campaign to remain in the EU surge ahead in opinion polls, helping to ease investors’ Brexit worries. Meanwhile, strong retail sales data suggest that consumers haven’t been as badly... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How long can pensioners keep spending? Population ageing has weighed on the average employee’s disposable income as social security contributions have risen by nearly 50% over the past fifteen years, and will continue rising in future... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumers shrug off Brexit uncertainty The consumer recovery appears to have got back on track, at least as far as the official retail sales figures indicate. Indeed, consumer confidence still seems to be holding up well despite the... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier market governments push for reform Low commodity prices, slower growth and a string of elections have prompted a move towards reform in a handful of frontier market economies in recent months. But while these governments have made... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: policy tightening underway, but work still to do Argentina’s long-overdue policy tightening – needed to address the country’s entrenched inflation problem – is finally underway, but with the fiscal deficit still large and inflation in excess of 40%... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State election results brighten reform outlook Regional parties have dominated the state elections held over the past month, but there has also been an apparent strengthening of support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP at the local level. On... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) Today’s Q1 GDP data for the Philippines showed that Rodrigo Duterte, the country’s president elect, will be handed an economy that is in very good health. The foundations are in place for growth to... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can China afford to bail out its banks? China’s government has the resources to clean up the bad debts in its financial system. Even if the corporate sector were to default on a quarter of its debt and the government responded by bailing... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Dutch consumers keep on spending? Despite the recent falls in consumer confidence, there are a number of reasons to be positive about the outlook for household spending in the Netherlands over the coming years. Nevertheless, worries... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Can Tsai rescue Taiwan’s economy? When Tsai Ing-wen takes over as Taiwan’s next president on 20th May she will inherit an economy that is struggling in the face of falling property prices, rising competition from Chinese companies and... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Tax amendments another success for Modi government Recent amendments to the tax treaty between India and Mauritius - the terms of which have made Mauritius the leading source of foreign investment into India - are likely to bring more benefits than... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: shift to interest rate corridor not a game changer The Philippines central bank’s (BSP’s) shift towards an interest rate corridor system does not amount to a change in its monetary policy stance. With inflation set to stay low, we think monetary... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian reforms to remain difficult, despite Kudrin’s return The appointment of well-respected former Finance Minister, Alexei Kudrin, as the Deputy Head of the President’s Economic Council has revived hopes that Russia could be set for a new wave of... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
