US Data Response Conf. Board Cons. Conf. (May) & Pers. Spending (Apr.) The decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to 92.6 in May, from 94.7, could potentially be the first signal that the presidential election is beginning to weigh on the economy... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will a new government halve Spanish unemployment? In order to cut Spanish unemployment significantly, the parties that gain power after voters return to the polls in June will need to focus on retraining the workforce. But even if schemes were... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Naira ‘reforms’ take centre stage Hints of a devaluation have led to confusion over the direction of Nigerian FX policy. Political uncertainty and fears of a ratings downgrade left South African rand as the worst performing EM... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Few surprises expected at OPEC meeting This week’s OPEC meeting in Vienna is likely to pass without any major surprises. Policymakers should be a little happier heading into the meeting than they were at the previous one in December –... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Recession warnings haven’t spooked investors This week the Treasury warned that a vote to leave the EU would result in a recession, while GDPdata added to the evidence that Brexit uncertainty contributed to Q1’s slowdown. But there weremore... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Even a small Brexit hit could leave fiscal rules broken Relatively small overshoots in public sector borrowing, like that shown in last week’s figures, could soon pale into insignificance if the UK were to vote to leave the EU next month. Indeed, the... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Analysing President Buhari’s first year The fall in global oil prices made an economic slowdown in Nigeria inevitable. But the country’s current crisis is largely self-inflicted. Government policy has made a bad situation much worse. 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil: promising policies, problematic politics Events in Brazil have dominated the past month. The new government under interim president, Michel Temer, has announced a string of market-friendly policies aimed at stabilising the economy, but it... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How will the UK referendum affect global monetary policy? A vote by the UK to leave the European Union would come as a major surprise and could trigger significant market turmoil. This would probably lead to the Bank of England keeping monetary policy looser... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can UK equities weather a Brexit? We don’t think that a vote to leave the EU would have a very significant negative impact on the FTSE 100, although the effect on UK indices of smaller firms might be more pronounced. Further ahead, a... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (May) May’s rise in the German Ifo suggests that the economy has continued to grow at pretty healthy rates, but the fast quarterly pace seen in Q1 will not be sustained. 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The implications of a vote to stay in the EU If the UK votes to stay in the EU, we expect a kneejerk strengthening in financial markets, although any rise in the pound might be short-lived. The economic recovery would quickly get back on track... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil fiscal package: lofty rhetoric, but implementation a risk Brazil’s Finance Minister, Henrique Meirelles, has unveiled the first part of his planned fiscal adjustment. Our initial take is that the plans are lofty in ambition, but so far lacking in detail... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Europe heading back into crisis? With the recovery in the euro-zone economy set to slow and the peripheral countries still facing a Herculean task to address their fiscal problems, there is a danger that Europe’s debt crisis will... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austrian result offers only brief respite from far-right’s rise The election of pro-immigration and -EU Alexander Van der Bellen as Austria’s next president keeps the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) out of office for now. But the FPÖ remain the top party in general... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Manufacturing PMI points to sharp slowdown in Q2 The fifth straight drop in the manufacturing PMI in May suggests that economic momentum slowed sharply in the second quarter. 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
