UK Housing Market Chart Pack Post-referendum chill starts to show The first set of post-referendum housing market data is consistent with our expectations of a slump in transactions over the next 6 to 12 months. That said, while the picture painted by the main house... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Policy response should cushion hit to growth The MPC’s decision to announce a package of stimulus measures yesterday was no doubt influenced by the thoroughly downbeat tone of this week’s survey data. While it’s clear that growth is set to slow... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jul.) Today’s Halifax index painted a mixed picture for the post-referendum house price reaction. But taking a wider view, there are plenty of signs that house price inflation is set to slow markedly over... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Referendum won’t solve Thailand’s problems Thailand’s upcoming referendum on a new constitution is unlikely to provide a lasting solution to the country’s political problems, and there is a real risk that tensions could once again flare up... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Local polls deliver blow to ANC Yesterday’s local elections suggest that South African elections may be becoming more competitive. Foreign investors will probably welcome the fact that reduced support for the ruling ANC has helped... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Limited Brexit impact, but growth slowing nonetheless The UK’s Brexit vote does not appear to have had a marked adverse impact on the euro-zone economy so far as the main survey indicators rose slightly in July. But Q2 GDP data confirmed that economic... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy shrugs off Brexit vote The initial evidence suggests that the UK’s vote to leave the EU has caused its economy to slow sharply. That has already prompted the Bank of England to ease policy, and we suspect it will cut rates... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The MPC delivers & signals more to come The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) today made good on its pledge at July’s meeting to implement a package of policy measures to cushion the economy from the adverse effects of the... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How is Ireland’s economy holding up after the Brexit vote? The early signs are that while the euro-zone economy has been largely unharmed by the UK’s vote for Brexit, the Irish economy, which has particularly strong trade links with the UK, has taken a hit... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Surveys provide first signs of post-referendum slowdown The latest data suggests that the economy dealt well with the pre-referendum uncertainty, with GDP growth picking up from 0.4% in Q1 to 0.6% in Q2. But the quarterly expansion was entirely driven by... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Jul.) July’s final Markit/CIPS headline composite PMI confirmed the steep drop reported in the flash estimate, suggesting that the Brexit vote has had a significant near-term impact on the economy. But we... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul. 2016) India’s manufacturing PMI edged up in July, but the reading remained lacklustre by past standards. The big picture is that local manufacturers continue to face significant structural constraints. 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Brexit drag on transactions and prices to last until next year A lot has changed since our previous Analyst. Distortions relating to the stamp duty surcharge alongside a weakening economic backdrop kicked the housing market into a lower gear earlier in Q2. And... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gauging the economic hit from Turkey’s coup attempt The attempted military coup in Turkey last month doesn’t appear to have triggered a sharp decline in capital inflows, but there are already signs that the hit to confidence will cause domestic demand... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) July’s manufacturing PMIs point to a further slowdown in industrial production growth in Central Europe, to around 2% y/y, which could be an early sign of spillovers from the UK’s Brexit vote. However... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Growth slowed significantly around the vote Data released this week imply that GDP growth ground to a halt in the two months preceding the referendum. And survey indicators suggest that conditions worsened further in the weeks following the... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
