Latin America Economics Update Peru’s election confirms continuation of market-friendly policy Pedro Pablo Kuczynski’s (PPK) victory in Peru’s presidential election is likely to mean the continuation of the current government’s market-friendly economic policy. While there is a risk that his... 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly “Brexit” risks coming into focus Commodity prices have generally risen in the past week, helped by further dollar weakness. However, sentiment already appears to be turning more cautious on renewed concerns over the health of the... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Leave camp momentum boosts rate cut chances Brexit concerns have intensified over the past week, with polls very close, and this was clearly reflected in falling interest rate expectations (and consequently sterling). But despite 10-year gilt... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs well placed to weather a Brexit vote A vote by the UK to leave the EU would likely cause ripples rather than shockwaves in the emerging world. Trade ties with the UK are too small to have a material impact on EM exporters. And while a... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Should Asia worry about Brexit? The referendum on Britain leaving the EU has dominated international headlines over the last week, with some commentators warning that a “Brexit” would have significant implications well beyond Europe... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How big a boost might “Brexit” provide to gold? There appears to be an increasingly close relationship between the gold price and the chances of the UK voting to leave the European Union, as implied by bookmakers’ odds. This is consistent, of... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How UK politics could affect post-Brexit EU relationship A key uncertainty following the EU referendum on 23rd June will be the impact of the vote on domestic political factors. If the UK votes to leave, the political situation will have a key bearing on... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Upper House elections unlikely to revive Abenomics The upcoming Upper House elections should solidify the government’s position even if the LDP/New Komeito coalition fails to achieve the hoped for two-thirds majority. However, hopes that a strong... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would “Brexit” mean for commodities? A UK vote to leave the European Union (“ Brexit ”) would presumably have a negative impact on global business and investor confidence. This in turn is likely to undermine the prices of industrial... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor “Brexit” poses little risk to EM Trade South Africa’s April output figures suggest that, after a disastrous Q1, the economy improved a touch going into Q2. But the country will still struggle to avoid a technical recession. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What to make of Korea’s rate cut and restructuring plans The Bank of Korea (BoK) unexpectedly lowered its policy rate to a new record low of 1.25% today, marking its first cut since last June. The decision came a day after plans were unveiled for the... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How might the MPC loosen policy after a Brexit? It is by no means guaranteed that the MPC would loosen policy after a Brexit vote. But if it did want to give the economy some extra stimulus, an interest rate cut would not be its only option. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should European markets be more worried about Brexit? Iceland’s second consecutive quarterly fall in GDP was down to the volatility of trade. The big picture is that domestic demand growth picked up and the outlook is positive. 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Saudi Arabia’s “National Transformation Plan” Saudi Arabia’s “National Transformation Plan” represents a credible effort by the authorities to flesh out some of their policies as they look to overhaul the Kingdom’s economy over the coming years... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May) May’s BRC retail sales data were fairly encouraging, following two months of disappointing readings. Overall, there’s relatively little sign that consumer spending is suffering much from uncertainty... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s presidential election: three key risks The second (and final) round of Peru’s presidential election, set to take place on Sunday, won’t bring a major shift away from the current government’s fairly market-friendly economic policies... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
