US Economics Weekly Would a lower corporate tax rate boost economic growth? We are sceptical of the claim made last week by Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, that lowering taxes, particularly corporate taxes, will be enough to boost average annual... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crunch time for Italy? A rejection of Matteo Renzi’s proposed constitutional reforms in Sunday’s referendum could plausibly set Italy on a path towards an eventual exit from the euro-zone, an outcome not remotely priced in... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are euro-periphery bond yields heading higher? The backstops that have been put in place to hold the euro-zone together could limit extra upward pressure on Italian – and other euro-periphery – government bond yields if voters in Italy reject... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How gloomy should we be about investment? The past few weeks have brought yet more relatively upbeat economic news and the first estimate of investment in Q3 was no exception. But we wouldn’t read too much into a single set of figures. And... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s populist shift is bad news for the economy The recent shift by the military government in Thailand towards economic populism will help to shore-up demand in the short-term. But the stalling of economic reform is undermining the country’s long... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected rise in retail sales in October will be a welcome sight for retailers in the lead up to the all-important Christmas spending period and suggests that the probable slowdown... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch QE to be extended as risks to growth outlook rise Amid heightened political and economic uncertainty, President Mario Draghi seems set to announce another six-month extension to the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme this month. We expect purchases to... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q3) Today’s capital spending figures suggest that non-residential investment was a touch stronger last quarter than initially estimated. However, the second preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP should confirm... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are markets under-estimating political risks? Don’t draw too much comfort from the markets’ muted response to political risks in the euro-zone. It may not tell us much about the scale of the threats facing the currency union and it may not last. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Nov.) Small business confidence was flat in November and suggests that the economy is treading water. Meanwhile, there are signs that the recent weakening of the exchange rate is boosting price pressures. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How will Trump’s victory affect global monetary policy? With President Trump set to implement a large fiscal stimulus next year, US inflation and interest rates will both rise more rapidly than seemed likely a month ago. This has already had knock-on... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Trump effect limited, but Zuma rocks the rand The effect of the US election result on African currency and equity markets seems to have been fleeting. In South Africa, though, the rand has closely tracked the possibility that Jacob Zuma could be... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Pension reform to improve health of public finances A proposed reform to better link pension payments with movements in wages should improve the viability of Japan’s public finances. For current workers though, the reform may force them to delay... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Tide turning against Temer While the eyes of the world have been focused on the fallout from the US election, domestic political risks have resurfaced in Brazil. The latest controversy surrounds allegations that President Temer... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Downgrade, when it comes, will tell us little new Friday’s re-evaluation of South African FX debt by Fitch & Moody’s suggests the country probably will lose its investment grade status. A downgrade wouldn’t have a significant economic or financial... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Can services alone deliver rapid growth? India is often heralded for demonstrating a new path to middle income by focusing on the development of its services sector rather than on significant industrialisation. It is true that India’s... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
