UK Commercial Property Update Referendum unlikely to be the catalyst for the next crash Victory for the Leave campaign in yesterday’s EU referendum clearly poses some downside risks to the commercial property market outlook in the UK. Yet we think that fears that the result will trigger... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Out vote will hit transactions harder than house prices The electorate’s vote to take the UK out the European Union presents another potential headwind to a housing market already labouring under worryingly high prices. But if we are right that the economy... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Brexit vote rattles EMs The vote by the UK to leave the EU is already creating a flight to safety, with financial markets in EMs that have deeper and more liquid markets (Mexico), large current account deficits (South Africa... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is Article 50 the only way for the UK to leave the EU? Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union provides a legal route by which the UK can withdraw from the EU. But could the UK bypass Article 50? And what are the chances that the vote to leave could... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian economies and markets should shrug off Brexit With the region’s trade ties to the UK relatively weak, the direct economic implications for Emerging Asia of the UK’s vote to leave the EU should be small. Equities and currencies have weakened, but... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update UK vote raises longer-term risks to Eastern Europe The UK’s vote to leave the EU in yesterday’s referendum is likely to cause further turbulence in Central and Eastern European (CEE) financial markets in the coming days and weeks. As things stand, we... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update UK’s vote to leave EU raises doubts over future of Europe The UK’s vote to leave the European Union will have substantial negative effects on the European economy and raises serious doubts over the future of both the EU itself and the currency union. 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit won’t destroy the UK economy The vote to leave the EU has clearly weakened the near-term outlook for the UK economy. But we still think that the ultimate damage will be smaller than many estimates have suggested. 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What will the Philippines look like under Duterte? Rodrigo Duterte, who will become the next president of the Philippines on 30 th June, will take over an economy in good health. We believe the foundations are in place for growth to remain strong, but... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A brief guide to referendum night The wait is finally over. After months of campaigning, TV debates and a torrent of leaflets, the UK public today go to the polls to decide on the country’s future in the European Union. This Update is... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets expect voters to reject Brexit The last few opinion polls released before EU referendum voting closes appear to have largely convinced markets that the UK will vote to remain in the EU. 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The manufacturing PMI remained weak in June and still points to sharp falls in industrial output. However, we would put more weight on firms’ production forecasts which point to a solid rebound in... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might a ‘Brexit’ vote mean for the yen? The yen would presumably jump on safe-haven demand in response to a UK vote to leave the EU, but we would still expect the Japanese currency to end the year much weaker against the dollar. Indeed... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The wait is over – will the UK vote to leave or stay in the EU? 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack CEE markets focus on Brexit risks The focus of investors in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is now squarely on the UK’s Brexit vote tomorrow. CEE has the largest linkages with the UK of any EM region, and so is more exposed to... 22nd June 2016 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: All eyes on final flurry of opinion polls Betting and financial markets continue to consider a vote to remain in the EU by far the more likely outcome in tomorrow’s referendum as we await the remaining few opinion polls. 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
