Japan Economics Weekly Offshoring, the yen & inflation Japanese manufacturers continue to increase production in their overseas subsidiaries. However, only a fraction of the goods produced overseas are re-imported to Japan. With the overall importance of... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly New president of the Philippines risks undoing recent gains When Rodrigo Duterte became president of the Philippines on 30 th June, we warned that although the fundamentals were in place for the economy to grow strongly, his election had made the outlook much... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would Trump mean for Australia & New Zealand? The economic outlook for Australia and New Zealand wouldn’t significantly worsen if Donald Trump became US President. Neither economy is particularly exposed to the threat of higher trade barriers... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much would a Trump tariff hurt China? An across-the-board 45% tariff on imports from China may end up raising retail prices in the US by only 10%, and less still if Chinese policymakers responded by allowing the renminbi to weaken. With... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish economy could suffer from political chaos The consequences of a third election in Spain would be worse than those of earlier votes. And with Catalonia renewing its push for independence, politics represent a clear risk to the economic outlook... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Reform progress provides healthy backdrop for EM equities Most emerging market (EM) countries have made further progress on implementing structural reforms in the past year. While this broad increase in competitiveness supports our view that EM stock markets... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Sep.) While the EC Business and Consumer Survey revealed a rise in sentiment in September, it still suggests that growth remains moderate and inflation expectations are weak. 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Aug 16.) At minus £325m in August, the fall in net lending to the property sector onlyreversed a small part of the previous three months’ gains. And with the initial fears that the out-vote would lead to a... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are investors underestimating EM credit risks? Both the BIS’s latest report and our own risk indicator continue to highlight high levels of debt as a key risk in China, but we think investors are right to judge that the threat of a credit event in... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Turkish downgrade highlights deteriorating investor outlook The decision by Moody’s to downgrade Turkey’s credit rating to non-investment grade comes at a time when investment in Turkish commercial property is struggling. Given a worsening economic and... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Duterte’s antics hits sentiment in the Philippines Financial markets in the Philippines have fallen in September amid growing concern over the increasingly erratic behaviour of the country’s new president, Rodrigo Duterte. 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Sep.) Even though small business confidence remains consistent with falling industrial production despite a rebound in September, firms’ forecasts for October suggest that conditions are on the mend. 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump, the US election and the implications for Latin America Donald Trump’s performance in last night’s first US presidential election debate doesn’t appear to have done himself any favours, but his election in November is still a real possibility. This would... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump, Yellen and the Federal Reserve If Donald Trump wins November’s presidential election, there is now a clear possibility that Fed Chair Janet Yellen would resign almost immediately, perhaps even before the mid-December FOMC meeting... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s constitutional referendum poses economic risks The Government confirmed today that the constitutional reform referendum will take place on 4thDecember. We think that a rejection of the reforms is a major risk to the economic outlook. 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Economics, not elections, the key to US equity performance The outcome of forthcoming elections in the US is unlikely to have a major bearing on the performance of its stock market, if history is a useful guide. Economics will matter more than politics. 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
