Europe Economics Update Is the Dutch election a litmus test for the rest of Europe? We suspect that a better-than-expected result for eurosceptic and populist parties in today’s Dutch general election would have little direct effect on support for eurosceptic parties elsewhere. 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will Article 50 trigger Brexit pain? While the imminent triggering of Article 50 will bring Brexit a step closer and could prompt a rise in uncertainty, there are still good reasons to expect the economy to remain resilient. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Officials remain too cautious on structural reforms The latest reports and official comments from the National People’s Congress suggest that progress on reducing overcapacity and state sector reforms will remain sluggish this year. Unless policymakers... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What to make of the renewed bid for Scottish Independence Scotland’s First Minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon’s announcement that she is beginning the process to enact a second referendum on Scottish independence before the UK exits the EU far from... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are things finally looking up for Portugal? Portugal’s anti-austerity Government has continued to implement economic reforms and cut its budget deficit, which reduces the risk of sanctions from the EU. But major challenges still lie ahead. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage growth picking up Japan’s unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since the mid-1990s and the job-to-applicant ratio is approaching its bubble year peak. Regular wages are rising at the fastest pace in years, and... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch election likely to result in small fiscal boost The PVV’s declining support suggests that is now even less likely to govern after the Dutch election. But the eventual governing parties will still respond to the populists by loosening fiscal policy. 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BJP victory in Uttar Pradesh brightens reform prospects The landslide victory for Prime Minister Modi and the BJP in the Uttar Pradesh state assembly election suggests that political goodwill towards the ruling national party remains intact, and boosts... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Article 50 notification set for end of the month The Lords’ amendments to the Article 50 Bill are all but certain to push back the date of notification to the end of the month. Meanwhile, expectations of tighter monetary policy abroad rather than... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will four more years of Abenomics make a difference? Prime Minister Abe is set to become Japan’s longest serving Prime Minister and could plausibly now serve until 2021. While his government had some early successes in removing roadblocks to stronger... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2017: OBR ties Hammond’s hands The Office for Budget Responsibility’s caution on both the economic and fiscal outlook limited the Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre in this last spring Budget. But he still has a little room to loosen... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension reforms: five key questions With Brazil returning from carnival, thoughts are shifting back to President Temer’s domestic policy agenda and, in particular, the prospects for planned pensions reform over the coming months that... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Talking the talk Nigeria’s Economic Growth & Recovery Plan (which was released this afternoon) provides a refreshingly honest analysis of the country’s economic problems & outlines a variety of sensible reforms. We’re... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Feb.) February’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor added to other evidence that the hit to real consumer spending growth from higher inflation is now starting to materialise. 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s political crisis approaching crucial phase Korea’s political crisis is approaching a key phase as the Constitutional Court prepares to rule on whether to officially impeach President Park Geun-hye. Park’s formal impeachment would increase the... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will the Bank of Japan have to start tightening soon? Japan’s economy has performed well recently and inflation is set to rise sharply soon. But the spike in inflation won’t last and, with inflation expectations no higher now than when the Bank of Japan... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
