Europe Economics Update Would Marine Le Pen’s margin of defeat make a difference? Assuming that Marine Le Pen loses in the second round of the French presidential election, her most radical eurosceptic and protectionist policies will gain little traction at home over the next five... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has Theresa May gone to the polls just in time? With the economy’s strength set to wane somewhat this year, Theresa May’s gamble to go to the polls to increase the Conservative’s majority may have been just in the nick of time. There is some... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook has brightened despite political risk The euro-zone has continued to perform very well and we now expect growth to be stronger than the consensus forecast this year and next. Inflation has been lower than we had assumed, meaning that... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling welcomes May’s election call The Prime Minister’s call for a snap General Election saw the pound surge higher despite expectations for future interest rates remaining more or less unchanged, having fallen over the preceding month... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Geopolitics takes centre stage Investor sentiment towards commodities has remained broadly positive over the last month, despite rising geopolitical tensions. It could be that signs of an improving global economic outlook are... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: after the referendum… Turkey’s constitutional referendum last Sunday has resulted in a small bounce in local financial markets, with some of the biggest moves coming in short-term local currency bonds. That could be a sign... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Snap election won’t derail the economy Theresa May’s surprise announcement of a snap election on 8th June adds another element of nearterm political uncertainty as the UK heads into formal Brexit negotiations. However, we doubt that this... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Economics likely to trump geopolitics Geopolitical concerns have boosted demand for safe-haven assets in the past week, and have pushed up measures of implied volatility in equity markets. But experience suggests that geopolitical events... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Higher geopolitical tensions support gold prices, for now The further deterioration in the US relationship with Russia and North Korea this week has supported the prices of precious metals. A weaker dollar, in light of President Trump’s comments about the... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: French election highlights negotiation time pressures While the political focus shifted away from Brexit and on to the French presidential election this week, UK labour market data and surveys of exporters suggest that the UK economy has remained... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How will the French economy fare after the election? France’s presidential election puts the country, and arguably the entire European Union, at a historic crossroads. The more likely path is one of liberal reforms that could boost growth and strengthen... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How big are the economic risks from the crisis in North Korea? There remains huge uncertainty as to how the growing crisis in North Korea will play out. Although war is likely to remain a last resort, the risk of some kind of military action is clearly growing... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Price expectations too weak to reach 2% inflation The labour market continues to tighten and firms are reporting the most severe capacity shortages in years. Underlying inflation is therefore set to recover after approaching zero at the start of this... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Feb.) The rebound in machinery orders in February wasn’t strong enough to reverse the decline in January. But with capacity usage picking up, we expect business investment to expand at a robust pace this... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Political risks don’t warrant major growth revisions – yet… Political risks in some parts of the emerging world have escalated in recent weeks, but not to the extent that we are marking down our near-term growth forecasts. 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Into the unknown While there are huge uncertainties ahead, the UK economy has entered the formal countdown to Brexit with decent momentum. Against this background, we see no reason to alter our long-standing view that... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
