Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jul.) Preliminary business surveys for July suggest that activity is contracting sharply in the UK following the Brexit vote. But there is no sign that other economies have been hit. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack After the coup... The failed military coup in Turkey and subsequent government backlash have dominated investors’ concerns over the past week and triggered a sell-off in local financial markets. Policymakers have... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Life after Brexit For the world as a whole, the economic impact of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union should be negligible. Nonetheless, growth looks set to remain lacklustre in advanced economies. And with... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Flash PMIs (Jul.) The first economy-wide gauge of post-referendum activity suggests that the UK economy probably contracted in the weeks after the vote. But with market sentiment having improved and political... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July) July’s slight fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the real economy has generally shrugged off the financial market volatility that followed the UK’s Brexit vote, but remains sluggish. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The second straight rise in the manufacturing PMI in July suggests that firms have shrugged off any uncertainty caused by the UK’s vote to leave the EU. However, the appreciation of the exchange rate... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Capital injections too small to revive banking sector The government’s announcement this week that it will inject more capital into local banks is a positive step, but the amount is still too limited to revive the ailing sector. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Confidence takes a knock post-referendum The near-term outlook for the consumer recovery has weakened since the UK voted to leave the EU last month. Indeed, consumers’ confidence in the economic outlook deteriorated sharply, and the drop in... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Prospects for world trade growth worsen The latest available data show that world trade, which has been pretty stagnant for the past eighteen months or so, remains depressed. And with the UK’s Brexit vote having further reduced the chances... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) Existing home sales edged out a small gain in June, helped by a rise in first-time buyer numbers. But the months’ supply of homes for sale has fallen to its joint-lowest level for 11 years, and the... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putting the Turkish market sell-off into context Turkey’s financial markets have fallen sharply following Friday night’s attempted coup and the subsequent backlash by the government, but the reaction appears relatively mild given the enormity of... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What does Brexit mean for the public finances? It appears likely that the Chancellor won’t ramp up austerity to offset the negative impact of Brexiton the public finances. Instead, we think he will increase borrowing further relative to... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The outlook for mortgage rates following Brexit The downward pressure on mortgage interest rates from Brexit already appears to be unwinding, with 30-year fixed rates increasing last week from 3.60% to 3.65%. Given we expect Brexit will have a... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC unfazed by rise in political risk The Turkish MPC’s decision to cut its overnight lending rate by a further 25bp today suggests the Council views the market volatility stemming from Friday night’s attempted coup (and growing concerns... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Policy response should cushion the hit from leave vote The UK’s vote to leave the European Union has plunged the country into a period of almost unprecedented uncertainty. But we remain a bit less pessimistic than some others over the economic impact. So... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank finds positives despite Brexit vote The Riksbank minutes confirm a readiness to act if conditions deteriorate in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. But there are signs of diminishing appetite for further measures from some members. 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
