Europe Economics Update Renewed Greek recession adds to bailout risks Greece’s return to recession in Q1 has highlighted the damage done by stalled bailout negotiations and suggests that the Government’s newly-updated economic forecasts are far too optimistic. This will... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The return of Goldilocks Japan’s economy probably recorded the fifth straight quarter of growth in Q1, the longest streak since 2005. The unemployment rate is at multi-year lows and corporate profit margins at record highs... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: MPC banks on a smooth departure In the minutes of its latest meeting, the MPC commented that if the economy evolves in line with its forecast, rate hikes would be justified before markets currently expect. But judging by the market... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Apr.) Despite an improvement in April, today’s Economy Watchers Survey remains consistent with falling manufacturing activity. It also points to a slowdown in job growth, though the survey has not been a... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What does Macron’s victory mean for the UK? Emmanual Macron’s victory in Sunday’s French presidential election is potentially good news for the UK economy and might also provide the best background for the Brexit negotiations. 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Macron succeed where others have failed? New French President Emmanuel Macron has a better chance than his predecessors of overhauling France’s sclerotic labour market and bloated public sector. But he may still have to dilute some of his... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest full employment is close Recent surveys show that the strength of business sentiment is fuelling a recovery in capital investment while ensuring that firms’ demand for labour is as strong as ever. With the pool of unemployed... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does Moon’s victory mean for South Korea? The election of Moon Jae-in as South Korea’s next president is unlikely to have a major impact on the country’s economic outlook. Moon’s Democratic Party not only lacks a majority in parliament, but... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Italy be the next domino not to fall? Anti-euro parties probably have a better chance of forming a government in Italy than in France. The election of an Italian eurosceptic government would not spell immediate disaster, but risks to the... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Merkel gains momentum but challenges beckon While Angela Merkel’s prospects for September’s federal elections have improved recently, a surprise defeat probably wouldn’t be a game-changer for the German economy. Meanwhile, the rise of small... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron victory provides relief but challenges remain Yesterday’s election of centrist liberal Emmanuel Macron as the next French President bodes well for the revitalisation of France’s lacklustre economy and the European project more generally. But he... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Public spat shows compromise won’t be easy Press reports of growing animosity between the UK and EU have this week given a sense that the prospects for a successful and orderly Brexit have deteriorated. But formal negotiations are not yet... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How would markets react to a Macron victory? Investors breathed a sigh of relief after Emmanuel Macron claimed the largest share of the vote in the first round of the French presidential election, and there is scope for a further rally if, as... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will Macron galvanise the French economy? Centrist liberal Emmanuel Macron looks set to comfortably defeat populist eurosceptic Marine Le Pen in Sunday’s final round of France’s presidential election and might even manage to secure a... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly TPP “minus US” – is it worth the bother? Even without the US, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could still provide a decent boost to the four countries from Emerging Asia included in the deal. The risk is that without the carrot of access... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Temer’s reforms inch forward in face of mounting opposition Despite mounting public opposition, President Temer’s reform agenda is inching ahead in Brazil. Labour market reforms have passed the lower house, but the real test lies ahead with pension reform. The... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
