Global Markets Update Too soon to sound the “all clear” on Brexit risks In the last few days there has been a lively debate in the UK media over whether Brexit ‘Armageddon’ has been avoided. Our view is that it is far too early to say for sure and that sterling in... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the jobs recovery about to lose its vigour? On the face of it, last week’s labour market figures provided some further welcome signs that the immediate impact of the Brexit vote on the economy might not be quite as bad as many had feared. The... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: First hard data give some cause for optimism The first raft of official data covering the post-referendum period, released this week, was surprisingly upbeat in the main. Overall, the data add weight to our view that while the economy is set to... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Should we be worried by Germany’s ZEW survey? Most information about Germany implies that the economy has continued to perform well after the UK’s Brexit vote. The main exception is the ZEW survey, which suggests that GDP growth could drop to... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jul.) July’s public finances figures gave us the first indication of how the vote to leave the EU will slow progress in reducing the deficit over the coming years. But the new Chancellor shouldn’t lose much... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Fundamentals will conquer short-term fears We have cut our forecasts for UK Commercial Property since our previous Analyst to reflect the heightened uncertainty resulting from the vote to leave the EU. In addition to penciling in a modest rise... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Little sign of immediate post-referendum hit to spending The UK’s vote to leave the EU means that consumer spending growth is set to slow on the back of a weakening jobs market and a squeeze on real wage growth. Confidence has already fallen since the vote... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July’s official retail sales figures suggest that consumers haven’t been ruffled by the leave vote. While we would be cautious about reading too much into one month’s figures, this provides a... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q2) Today’s Q2 GDP data for the Philippines show that President Rodrigo Duterte has taken over a country in good shape. Although the foundations are in place for growth to remain strong, Duterte’s... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia faces a painful period of post-election austerity Zambia’s disputed election has raised the risk of a period of political uncertainty, but with the vote out of the way, we think that it’s now likely that the government will agree to a long-delayed... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun./Jul.) Today’s data showed that the labour market was strong prior to the referendum and the leave vote doesn’t appear to have caused any immediate damage. But the solid figures shouldn’t stop the MPC from... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q2) Thailand’s growth slowed last quarter, and the recent bombings in some of the country’s key tourist destinations present a significant downside risk to economic activity. 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The conventional wisdom is that the Bank of Japan’s large-scale bond purchases will soon dry up the pool of available assets. By contrast, we believe that QQE can continue for several more years. One... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Resilient consumers help to limit post-vote hit This week’s data provided more evidence that business investment and the property market will be hit hard by the leave vote. But with signs of resilience in consumer spending, and the Bank of England... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Have consumers shrugged off Brexit? Last week’s figures suggested that households haven’t been ruffled much by the leave vote. Admittedly, we are wary about reading too much into these relatively upbeat figures. Temporary factors such... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Very low gilt yields are here to stay While some of the forces recently putting strong downward pressure on gilt yields may ease a bit in the coming months, the prospect of a further prolonged period of ultra-loose monetary policy... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
