Global Markets Update Economics more important than politics for US equities The fate of the US stock market tends to be determined by economics rather than by politics. As a result, it should not be surprising that shareholders have shrugged off both Trump’s recent spat with... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: How serious is the threat of Scottish independence? Renewed calls for a second referendum on Scottish independence, and the House of Lords’ amendments to the Article 50 Bill are stumbling blocks to Theresa May’s Brexit plans, but we doubt that either... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What if Italy left the euro-zone? If Italy left the euro-zone, we think that its new currency would depreciate by about 30% against the euro. In the year or so following its exit, the economy would probably contract sharply, but we... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus S. Africa: Growth to accelerate, but recovery won’t last After a grim 2016, growth in South Africa will recover more quickly than most expect, reaching 2.0% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018. But this would still be a woeful outcome for a country at South Africa’s... 3rd March 2017 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Income recession to income boom If the falls in the various measures of national income in Australia in 2015 constituted an income recession, then the surge in the fourth quarter of last year looks like a mini income boom. Whether... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Next French President won’t enjoy carte blanche None of the three frontrunners in this spring’s French presidential election looks likely to be able to depend on majority support in Parliament should they be elected. This will weaken their capacity... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Poised for a resurgence? The government’s demonetisation measures have caused growth in India to slow but the economy is set to recover as consumption and investment rebound. Longer-term prospects have also been boosted as... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Win or lose, populists will have a big impact on policy There is a significant chance of populist, eurosceptic parties entering government in Italy. While populists’ chances in Germany, France and the Netherlands are more limited, they may nevertheless... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q4) Today’s capital spending figures suggest that non-residential investment was stronger last quarter than initially reported. Overall GDP growth may therefore be revised up from +0.2% q/q to +0.3% q/q... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Irish economy will continue to outperform We doubt that Prime Minister Enda Kenny’s apparently imminent resignation will have a major macroeconomic effect. More generally, the economy looks well placed to continue growing strongly. 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the UK’s “exit bill” thwart Brexit negotiations? Once Article 50 has been triggered, one of the first things that will be discussed is the UK’s “divorce settlement” – or the degree to which the UK will cover its share of pending EU commitments and... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Net migration from the EU falls after Brexit vote There have been growing signs that some EU nationals are reacting to the vote to leave the EU by either returning to their country of citizenship or by obtaining residency rights in the UK. Meanwhile... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update “Macronomics” could put France on the right track French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron last night confirmed that he intends to cut overall government spending, boost public investment and overhaul the labour market. These are all long... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What next for Japan’s free trade agreements? With the writing on the wall for the TPP, Japan’s government believes that its next best bet would be a bilateral deal with the US. In principle, this could generate sizeable benefits by opening Japan... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The importance of state elections The raft of state elections currently taking place in India is likely to have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But more significant, the outcome of the state elections – in... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a victory for Germany’s SPD reshape Europe? A German government led by the Social Democratic Party could embark on a modest fiscal stimulus at home and show more fiscal leniency to countries such as Greece. But its policies would be unlikely to... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
