UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Aug.) August’s Markit/CIPS services PMI confirmed that the collapse seen in July was a temporary reaction to the shock of the vote to leave the EU. But we doubt this will prevent the MPC from easing... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) Euro-zone retail sales started Q3 strongly but growth is set to slow in the coming months. Indeed, the downward revision to August’s euro-zone Composite PMI hints at the challenges facing the economy... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Post-referendum hit eased in August While this week’s data still clearly point to a slowdown in the economy following the leave vote, they also suggest that conditions improved in August following the immediate post-referendum shock... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in sterling already supporting the economy While there are already signs of the inflationary impact of the fall in sterling starting to make its way through the supply chain, the drop appears to be providing some support to the economy. Indeed... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Aug.) August’s construction PMI built on yesterday’s encouraging news from the manufacturing sector. A sharp improvement, recovering most of July’s decline, suggests that confidence in the construction... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will the stronger yen speed up offshoring? While the recent strengthening of the yen has rendered outward investment cheaper for Japanese firms, we doubt that it will lift investment outflows much as the growth outlook elsewhere remains rather... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Aug.) The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI for August confirmed out suspicions that the sharp drop in July was an overreaction and adds to other survey evidence suggesting that the economy is getting over the... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the Brexit vote put the brakes on car spending? Spending on the high street has remained resilient in the few months after the referendum. But one area of spending where Brexit uncertainty may already be taking its toll is car sales. The 72,727... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q2) Today’s data on capital spending showed a fall that broadly matched the drop in non-residential investment in the preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP. The upshot is that the second estimate of GDP, due... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rousseff’s removal will shift attention to fiscal reforms The vote by Brazil’s Senate to formally remove President Rousseff from office was a foregone conclusion and is unlikely to have a major impact on markets. Attention will now shift to the passage of... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Aug.) Consumer confidence recovered a little in August in another sign that consumers haven’t been too unsettled by the leave vote. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What conditions will be attached to Egypt’s IMF deal? The Egyptian authorities seem close to securing an IMF deal, but the conditions attached to lending have been a stumbling block to a bailout in the past and opposition has already started to emerge... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Resetting reform priorities after the GST The passage of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill this month, 10 years after its introduction, was arguably the biggest legislative victory to date for the Modi government. Looking ahead, the... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Policy risks cast shadow over fragile economies Official data released over the past month mostly suggested that African economies improved a touch, but a series of political shocks has hit investor confidence. The most high-profile of these as... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul.) July’s household borrowing figures highlighted that the housing market continued to cool following the EU referendum and there were signs that consumers’ appetite for debt took a bit of a hit as well... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jul. 16) Mortgage lending cooled in July, as the referendum hurt buyer confidence. Uncertainty has lifted somewhat since. But buyers will stay cautious as the economic backdrop softens, helping to keep lending... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
