UK Economics Focus Can the construction sector dig itself out of trouble? The first raft of economic data covering the post-referendum period has been fairly robust. But not all sectors have been performing well, with the construction sector still in the doldrums. 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still no need to worry about the pound While the pound’s latest dip has partly reflected concerns over the prospect of a “hard Brexit”, thecurrency’s depreciation should continue to cushion the economic impact of the vote to leave the EU. 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombians reject peace deal, main risks political Colombian voters’ rejection of the government’s peace deal with the FARC rebel group is unlikely to signal an immediate return to violence. And, while it is a significant blow to the economy’s medium... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan Q3 According to today’s Tankan survey, conditions in the manufacturing sector remained the weakest they have been seen the launch of QQE, while conditions in non-manufacturing continued to worsen. The... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Is a “Hard Brexit” on the cards? This week provided some further indications that policymakers are leaning towards a harder form of Brexit package than initially anticipated. However, the UK at least appears to be headed into... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump’s trade complaints put Canada in the firing line During the first US presidential debate last week, Republican nominee Donald Trump predictably returned to one of the central themes of his campaign; that the US is being cheated by global trade rules... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending resilient ahead of referendum The latest Quarterly National Accounts showed that consumer spending held up well ahead of the referendum. Looking ahead, although we expect some slowdown, there are a number of factors which should... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2) Today’s Quarterly National Accounts and Balance of Payments figures for Q2 showed that the economy was even more resilient ahead of the EU referendum than previously thought, although it remained... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Sep.) Consumer confidence bounced back to pre-referendum levels in September in another sign that households are shaking off their initial post-Brexit vote blues. 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Offshoring, the yen & inflation Japanese manufacturers continue to increase production in their overseas subsidiaries. However, only a fraction of the goods produced overseas are re-imported to Japan. With the overall importance of... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly New president of the Philippines risks undoing recent gains When Rodrigo Duterte became president of the Philippines on 30 th June, we warned that although the fundamentals were in place for the economy to grow strongly, his election had made the outlook much... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would Trump mean for Australia & New Zealand? The economic outlook for Australia and New Zealand wouldn’t significantly worsen if Donald Trump became US President. Neither economy is particularly exposed to the threat of higher trade barriers... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much would a Trump tariff hurt China? An across-the-board 45% tariff on imports from China may end up raising retail prices in the US by only 10%, and less still if Chinese policymakers responded by allowing the renminbi to weaken. With... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish economy could suffer from political chaos The consequences of a third election in Spain would be worse than those of earlier votes. And with Catalonia renewing its push for independence, politics represent a clear risk to the economic outlook... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Reform progress provides healthy backdrop for EM equities Most emerging market (EM) countries have made further progress on implementing structural reforms in the past year. While this broad increase in competitiveness supports our view that EM stock markets... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Sep.) While the EC Business and Consumer Survey revealed a rise in sentiment in September, it still suggests that growth remains moderate and inflation expectations are weak. 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
