Europe Economics Weekly Is Italy now most likely to leave the euro-zone? According to the Sentix investor survey, Italy is now the most likely country to leave the euro-zone in the next 12 months. While we think that Italy remaining in the currency union is still the more... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST begins to take shape Confirmation that a consensus has been reached on the various rates of the new Good and Services Tax (GST) marks another important step towards its implementation. A multi-tiered GST is far from... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Markets need not worry about Trump too much Should Donald Trump pull off a surprise victory in Tuesday’s US Presidential election, equities, bond yields, commodity prices and the Australian and New Zealand dollars would probably all fall. But... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Domestic risks to Europe easily trump the US election A Trump victory in next week’s US election could prompt an unwelcome appreciation of the euro exchange rate, but we suspect that this would be short-lived. What’s more, other effects on euro-zone... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump & the Mexican peso: how low can you go? The likely market sell-off in response to a victory for Donald Trump next week could push the Mexican peso to as low as 25/$. What happens to the peso beyond the initial sell-off would depend upon... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed on track for December rate hike As widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting, but it appears to be intent on hiking interest rates at the upcoming December meeting. Nevertheless, next week’s... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Failed debt plan another blow to President Buhari The Nigerian senate’s decision to block the president’s borrowing plans may preclude an infrastructure-focused stimulus plan. The bill’s failure highlights the importance of boosting domestic non-oil... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would be the global fallout from a Trump victory? A Trump victory in the US elections next Tuesday may send shockwaves through financial markets, at least temporarily. But the economic consequences for the world as a whole would be less dramatic. 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Disputed election result would introduce new uncertainty The presidential election race is now too close to call, raising the possibility of a near-tied election result that would be aggressively disputed by one or both of the candidates. Under those... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government likely to miss privatisation target With more than half of the fiscal year over, the government’s aim of raising nearly INR600bn through asset sales of various state-owned companies looks unrealistic. Faced with a number of state... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi finance minister’s departure won’t mark end of austerity The decision to replace Saudi Arabia’s finance minister is unlikely to mark a shift in the Kingdom’s approach to dealing with the fallout from lower oil prices. While the outgoing finance minister had... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Little risk to growth from Iceland’s election The next Icelandic government may be an unconventional one, but improvements to Iceland’s public finances and external position since the crisis mean that there is little risk to economic growth. 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Was Q3 as good as it gets for global growth? We estimate that world GDP growth accelerated slightly in the third quarter, due to the ongoing policyled rebound in China and a pick-up in activity in the US. However, the expansion will probably... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean scandal a blow for the president, but not the economy The corruption scandal which has engulfed Korea over the weekend is a major blow to the authority of President Park Geun-hye. The economic impact, however, is likely to prove quite small. 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Lat Am central banks turning more dovish Central banks in several countries in Latin America are turning increasingly dovish. Policymakers in Brazil cut interest rates this month on the back of another drop in inflation and further (gradual)... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Bleak forecasts proved unfounded This week’s economic data brought confirmation that the immediate economic impact of the vote to leave the EU has not been nearly as severe as many had initially expected and gives us reason to be... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
