Global Economics Update The global economic consequences of Trump’s victory Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has, so far, had less impact on financial markets than most anticipated. We suspect that it has also made little difference to the immediate... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Trump win could heighten euro-zone political risks The limited immediate reaction in European financial markets to Donald Trump’s victory appears to support our view that the outcome will have few direct economic implications. If anything, though, the... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s hopes for the TPP dead and buried The yen may strengthen a little further as increased uncertainty adds to safe haven demand, and Japanese exporters may face a less welcoming environment for trade. But, for Japan, the key immediate... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Trump victory not a game-changer for the UK While Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election adds another element of uncertainty to the UK’s economic outlook, there are reasons why the consequences for the UK may be smaller and less... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Market fallout from President Trump may not last long The now-probable election of Donald Trump as US President will continue to send shockwaves through the financial markets for a while yet. But we suspect it won’t be long before the bulk of these moves... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update First thoughts on the US election fallout The sell-off in EM financial markets in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US election has been swift but policymakers in most countries will look through the initial volatility – only central... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.) Allowing for seasonal factors, the Economy Watchers Survey climbed to a ten-month high in October. However, the index remains consistent with sluggish activity in the manufacturing sector. 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Clinton win looking increasingly likely Going into today’s presidential election, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton appears to have established a solid three to four point lead in the polls over Republican rival Donald Trump but, given... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Final thoughts on the day of the US presidential election A victory for Hillary Clinton in today’s presidential election is now heavily discounted. As a result, it would trigger far less of a response in the markets than a surprise win for Donald Trump. In... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What will the US election mean for the Nordic and Swiss economies? The importance of international trade to the Nordics and Switzerland, as well as the franc’s role as a safe haven, mean that the outcome of the US election is potentially important to the region. This... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What would a Trump victory mean for Asia? The Philippines, followed by Taiwan and Korea, stand out as the countries in Asia with most to lose inthe event Donald Trump is elected as the next president of the United States. 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will the outcome of the US election affect the dollar? Whoever wins the US presidential election, the recent uneven performance of the US dollar is likely to continue. If – as seems increasingly likely – Hillary Clinton emerges victorious, we would expect... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How would Mexican policymakers respond to a Trump victory? If Donald Trump prevails in tomorrow’s US presidential election, our sense is that Mexican policymakers’ initial response would be to hike interest rates by 100-200bp at an emergency central bank... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Infrastructure bank will only create more bureaucracy The Liberal government’s plan to create a national infrastructure bank is a recipe for greater bureaucracy rather than a remedy for improving longer-term economic prospects. Existing public agencies... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: High-court ruling may delay, not cancel, Brexit Thursday’s High Court ruling on Article 50 is unlikely to prevent Brexit from happening, but it raises the chance that the start of the process gets delayed. Moreover, just as markets were looking... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty will persist well past election day This week’s presidential election is now too close to call. Even in the aftermath of the FBI Director’s letter to Congress a week last Friday, Hillary Clinton still appears to hold a slim lead in the... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
