China Economics Update Three things to watch in the Standing Committee reshuffle President Xi is widely expected to consolidate his power over the Party and over policy at the Party Congress next month. Politics is extremely opaque at elite levels in China and we won’t have any... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Bank lending rates remain very low and corporate profits have climbed to record highs. Companies are in rude financial health as a result and the number of bankruptcies has dropped to levels not seen... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Not out of the woods yet Most commentators hailed the Kenyan Supreme Court’s decision to annul the result of last month’s presidential election as a key win for the country’s democracy. This is, as yet, premature. The real... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jul.) The rebound in machinery orders in July was overdue, but the figures have become increasingly less reliable as an indicator of capital spending. The bigger picture is that investment should continue... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: EU concerned by UK stance on N. Ireland A position paper on the EU’s approach to Northern Ireland and accompanying statements by Michel Barnier on Thursday highlighted that the EU and the UK will struggle to agree on how to deal with trade... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Would the yen remain a safe haven during a Korean War? The experience of the last couple of weeks suggests that gold might be the better safe haven choice if war were to break out on the Korean peninsula. Nonetheless, on the evidence of past crises, the... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Aug.) The EWS showed a rebound in manufacturing conditions which points to solid gains in industrial output. However, household conditions weakened which suggests that the recovery in consumer spending is... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia rejigging reform plans as opposition mounts Reports that the Saudi government is planning to dilute its reform plans may be the first sign that the power and influence of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is starting to wane and that broader... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Party Congress work report to offer early hints of Xi’s power Anticipation is building ahead of next month’s Party Congress, which is widely seen as a potential watershed in policymaking if it results in President Xi successfully consolidating his power. The... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update South Korea: counting the economic cost of THAAD Chinese retaliation over South Korea’s deployment of the US Terminal High Altitude Defense (THAAD) system has led to a sharp slump in Chinese tourist arrivals in South Korea and a big fall in Korean... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Has demonetisation been a complete failure? On the face of it, demonetisation has been an abject failure given its lack of success in rooting out illicit wealth while also causing growth to slow sharply. But demonetisation is likely to have... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Temer clings on but hopes for pension reform fading Brazil’s government should continue to make headway in reforming a number of areas of the economy, but we think that the prospects of meaningful reform to the country’s pension system is now no more... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What will Norway’s election mean for the economy? Polls suggest that the Green Party might emerge from Norway’s general election, on 11th September, as “kingmaker”. In that case, confidence in the large oil sector would probably fall. But overall, we... 4th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Stand-off continues This week’s third round of negotiations saw some limited progress. But the overriding sense from yesterday’s press conference was that Britain is still seeking to negotiate outside the format imposed... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly French outlook bright despite reform worries French consumers are, rather unusually, very upbeat at the moment, with measures of consumer confidence at or close to multi-year highs. In particular, they are much less worried about being made... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Emerging Asia’s PMIs for August suggest the region’s manufacturing sectors gained a little bit of momentum last month. In particular, there were signs of improvement in both Korea and Taiwan – the two... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
