China Economics Update China’s worries over Trump fade China’s relationship with the US has so far been less fraught than had seemed likely immediately after President Trump’s election victory. Tensions are likely to flare up at some point but the most... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets’ fears over Le Pen outweigh hopes for Macron Marine Le Pen’s announcement of her radical vision for France, particularly her intentions for an exit from the European Union and the euro, unnerved euro-zone financial markets last week. Her main... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we stop worrying about politics? The lesson of 2016 is that political shocks often have limited economic consequences. This implies that a period of political chaos or paralysis in Washington may not make much difference to the US... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Le Pen would face a bumpy and uncertain road to “Frexit” Marine Le Pen’s desire to take France out of the euro zone and the European Union if she is elected President in May faces political and legal hurdles. They are not insurmountable but the process is... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Could Trump politicise US statistics? The Trump administration’s alarming tendency to dismiss objective facts as “fake news”, which can be countered with their own “alternative facts”, has led to claims that the President and his team... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian rates to rise further than many expect The fairly hawkish post-meeting press conference and upwards revisions to the central bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that the Romanian MPC is increasingly concerned about the prospect of loose... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Uncertainty – the Brexit dog that hasn’t barked A key reason why the UK economy has proved unexpectedly resilient since the vote for Brexit is that the resulting uncertainty has not had the negative effects that many had anticipated. And there are... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Sticking to the timetable on Article 50 The Government moved one step closer to triggering Article 50 this week after MPs overwhelmingly voted in favour of its bill. Meanwhile, the latest economic data suggest that the economy has... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Trump, China and the world in 2017 In this Focus we consider the outlook for the world economy this year and next, in light of two of the biggest concerns which have preoccupied investors in recent months: US economic policy under... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran now in Trump’s sights An early morning tweet from President Trump suggests that his attention may now shift to Iran and its infamous nuclear deal. In this Update, we explain what has happened, the chances of the deal being... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jan.) Although price pressures are building rapidly, January’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggests the sector started the year on a stronger footing. 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update President Trump: What we’ve learned so far Despite the chaos of the first week of Donald Trump’s presidency, financial markets have so far been remarkably unperturbed. But if Trump’s incendiary executive orders damage the prospects of more... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Trump-Mexico relations off to a rocky start Relations between President Trump and Mexico have got off to an inauspicious start, with spats over the renegotiation of NAFTA, border taxes and, of course, the Wall. From the point of view of Mexico... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Brexit resilience to continue While there are still considerable uncertainties over the economic outlook, we maintain our view that the damage from the UK’s vote to leave the EU will be smaller than most forecasters have... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) January’s Economic Sentiment Indicators in Central and Eastern Europe suggest that most economies in the region made a strong start to this year. In particular, today’s data support our view that... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French election pits liberalism against protectionism Following the nomination yesterday of left-winger Benoît Hamon as the Socialist Party’s presidential candidate, the battle lines on which the election will be fought have become clearer. At this stage... 30th January 2017 · 2 mins read
