UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Customs paper overly-optimistic On the face of it, the two further position papers published this week by the Department for Exiting the EU, on Northern Ireland and potential future customs arrangements, point to a fairly soft form... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: New survey quantifies cost of corruption A new survey of corruption in Nigeria’s public service underlines the economic costs of its onerous FX and customs regime. The publication of the commendable frank survey is, in itself, a very... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan still building bridges to nowhere? Japan’s government has scaled back its public investment spending dramatically since the 1990s but it remains high by international standards. The quality of the country’s infrastructure is therefore... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German election is Merkel’s to lose as campaigning kicks off With Angela Merkel’s party far ahead in the polls and pledging to pay off debt and cut taxes rather than increase investment, it looks set to be more of the same in Germany after September’s election... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Strong bank earnings conceal gloomy outlook Official data published on Monday show that commercial banks’ non-performing loan (NPL) ratio held steady at 1.74% in Q2 and that their net profits grew almost 12% y/y, the fastest pace since 2014... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s diplomatic crisis: the economic hit so far The early evidence suggests that the diplomatic crisis between Qatar and regional powers dealt a damaging, but apparently brief, blow to Qatar’s economy. 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Macri in decent shape ahead of legislative elections With most of the votes in Argentina’s primary legislative elections now counted, it appears that support for President Macri’s ruling coalition has held up better-than-expected, and the peso is likely... 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Geopolitical tensions halt Swiss franc’s slide The Swiss franc has had a rocky ride over the past month. In late July, it depreciated sharply to SFr1.15 to the euro, its lowest level since January 2015 when the Swiss National Bank abandoned its... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Position papers pending Ahead of the publication of the UK Government’s next batch of position papers, there has been little in the way of Brexit developments this week. Meanwhile, the latest economic data was rather mixed... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How is Brexit shaping up? This Focus discusses what we have learnt about the Brexit negotiations so far. It addresses four key questions. First, are there now signs that Brexit worries are weighing on the economy? Second, how... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What does the crisis in Korea mean for the markets? Financial markets in Korea and the rest of Emerging Asia have fallen in response to the latest increase in tensions on the Korean peninsula. However, given the scale of the risks involved, the falls... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Inflation genie remains in its bottle Japan’s economy probably recorded the sixth quarter of uninterrupted GDP growth in Q2 and the outlook for the third quarter is positive. In fact, the economy remains on track to enjoy the longest... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jun.) Machinery orders fell yet again in June and recorded the sharpest drop in a year last quarter. The key point though is that orders have become less reliable as a guide to business investment. 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Disputed result raises risk to economy Claims of tampering in yesterday’s Kenyan election have increased fears of a violent dispute. A crisis may still be avoided, but the risk of a deadly (and economically damaging) dispute is increasing. 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: Tight labour markets point to more hikes than most expect We think that natural unemployment rates have fallen by 2.5-3.0%-pts in Central & Eastern Europe over the past decade. Even so, actual rates of unemployment are now significantly below these (lower)... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How big a worry is euroscepticism in Italy? The latest Eurobarometer survey suggested that Italy is one of the most eurosceptic members of the single currency. While there are reasons why an Italian exit from the euro over the next few years is... 7th August 2017 · 1 min read
