Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Having slowed in Q3, we expect growth in Emerging Europe to recover over the course of the next year as Russia continues to pull out of recession and investment in the Central European economies... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would Trump’s repatriation tax boost the US stock market? While Donald Trump’s plan to tax retained corporate income held offshore at 10% could encourage US multinationals to repatriate funds, we doubt that it would provide a big boost to the S&P 500. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update President Trump and the implications for the Middle East Two weeks on from Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election and we’re starting to get a sense of the likely shape and priorities of his administration. The inherent contradictions in Mr... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No post-Trump overhaul in our forecasts While many analysts are scrambling to revise down their economic forecasts for Mexico and the rest of Latin America in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory, for now we see little reason to make... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing and Trump add to list of economy’s woes The economy has recovered from the temporary disruption caused by the wildfires earlier this year and the slump in mining-related investment, triggered by the collapse in oil prices last year, is... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump fiscal stimulus will boost GDP growth The prospect of a major fiscal stimulus means that we are formally raising our forecasts for real GDP growth, inflation and interest rates. There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding exactly... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tweaking – not slashing – our Mexico forecasts Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US election has led to a rash of sizeable downgrades to growth forecasts for Mexico, including several predictions of a recession. But we think the impact over... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What if Italy votes “no”? The final opinion polls ahead of Italy’s forthcoming referendum suggest that the public will reject the proposed constitutional reforms. The low level of bond yields suggests that investors are not... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Some more mixed news on the economy This week brought some more mixed news on the state of the economy after the referendum, but markets have revised up their expectations for interest rates, and gilt yields have risen, regardless. 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trump: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ The markets have convinced themselves that there is a major fiscal stimulus coming early next year, that a roll-back of regulation will boost the financial sector and that Trump will take a much... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Assessing the risks around the French election Recent events seem to have further boosted the chances of the National Front’s Marine Le Pen in next spring’s presidential election. Of course, she has been quick to claim that Donald Trump’s victory... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico raises rates to shore up peso, further hikes likely The 50bp increase in Mexican interest rates (to 5.25%) at today’s meeting was aimed at supporting the peso in the aftermath of the US election and it’s clear that further hikes are on the cards. We... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed’s Yellen stalls for time, but December rate hike coming Chair Janet Yellen’s remarkably bland prepared congressional testimony today did nothing to change our view that the Fed will hike interest rates at the upcoming mid-December FOMC meeting. Despite... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus World trade in the Trump era The election of Donald Trump is the clearest expression so far of the growing anti-globalisation sentiment across advanced economies. Initially at least, we think that his bark will prove to be worse... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could the RCEP compensate for the demise of the TPP? The potential benefits for Japan from the proposed RCEP trade deal in Asia are similar in scale to those that might have been achieved under the TPP. But they are not substitutes for each other: gains... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s political crisis deepens Korea’s political crisis has continued to deepen and looks likely to drag on, possibly for months. For the economy though, little has changed. The outlook was already difficult, with a lame duck... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
