Europe Economics Update What is Italy’s referendum all about? Italy’s forthcoming referendum on constitutional reform is expected to take place in October or November. If the reform is accepted, it could make governments more stable and passing legislation... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mixed messages from economic surveys The euro-zone Composite PMI has held up well since the UK’s Brexit vote, but it is too soon to sound the all clear. After all, the Composite PMI measures current output rather than indicating how... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Surveys point to slowdown but not collapse Data released this week provide further evidence that growth is slowing following the vote to leave the EU. However, they generally don’t point to an outright contraction in activity either, adding... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Taking stock of data for the post-referendum period It has been two months since the UK voted to leave the EU and you could be forgiven for being puzzled by the recent data on the economy. After all, different sets of figures released have given... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Political risk spook investors Political risk has roiled the markets in South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya over the past month. Tensions within South Africa’s cabinet, which pose a risk to the country’s already fragile economy... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (July) July’s money and credit data show a pick-up in lending growth, despite concerns about banks’ health and the UK’s vote for Brexit. Nevertheless, the data suggest that inflation will remain weak. 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Corporate bond rate falls won’t save business investment Despite a fall in corporate bond yields since the referendum, we still expect business investment to be the largest near-term casualty of the vote to leave. Indeed, the fall in the pound will increase... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan still haunted by the undead? Japan’s economy remains dominated by old, unproductive firms, while those hoping to create new firms face a range of hurdles. Meanwhile, the country remains relatively isolated from the rest of the... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Political tensions come to the fore Political tensions have re-emerged in a number of frontier market economies in recent weeks, casting a shadow over the economic outlook. The outcome of the recent presidential election in Zambia has... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Shrugging off Brexit worries for now While early post-referendum indicators of consumer spending have been fairly upbeat, spending growth is still set to slow following the vote to leave the EU. Labour market conditions are likely to... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Aug. & Q3) Despite the improvement in todays’ CBI Distributive Trades Survey, the figures still point to a slowdown in the official measure of retail sales growth after July’s strength. 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia peace deal won't change near-term economic outlook According to media reports a final peace deal between the Colombian government and the FARC is likely to be announced later today at 6pm local time. This will be an historic milestone and should... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional recovery to disappoint, rates to come down Growth across Emerging Europe is likely to pick up in 2017-18, but it will be softer than most anticipate. While the region’s largest economy, Russia, will return to positive growth in the coming... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Aug.) Preliminary survey data for August, which were published today, suggest that economic growth remained slow but steady in advanced economies. Meanwhile, alternative survey evidence for the UK has been... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Aug.) The relatively upbeat tone of August’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey gives us another reason to be tentatively optimistic about the extent to which the economy has taken a hit from the referendum... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug) August’s slight rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that, while the region has so far weathered the UK’s Brexit vote, economic conditions remain fairly subdued. 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
