Saudi Vision 2030 likely to fall short of lofty goals

The recent elevation of Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman to crown prince has raised hopes of a renewed impetus to push through his Vision 2030 reform programme. But, while the scope of the programme is impressive, it will face numerous implementation challenges and still fails to address several key issues holding back economic growth. The result is that Vision 2030 is likely to fall short of its lofty intentions. We foresee only a modest boost to long-run GDP growth, which will remain sluggish at no more than 2.5-3.0%.