Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures still building Recent euro-zone inflation data have provided firmer signs that CPI inflation will remain well below the ECB’s 2% stability ceiling for longer than the Bank itself expects. Admittedly, headline CPI... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) November’s euro-zone unemployment and retail sales data provided fresh evidence that the outlook for consumers is improving, but only slowly. 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Falling unemployment unlikely to prompt rate hike While unemployment is falling swiftly towards the 7% threshold above which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has pledged to keep official interest rates on hold, it remains unlikely that rates will... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.), PPI (Nov.) & Ger. Unemp. (Dec.) December's fall in euro-zone CPI inflation will add to concerns that the region could suffer from a bout of deflation and increase the pressure on the ECB to take more action to support the economy. 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish prospects are improving, but only gradually December’s drop in Spanish unemployment will bolster hopes that the labour market has reached a turning point and the economic recovery may spread to the household sector. But while we have revised up... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions still improving gradually Our econometric model points to a healthy 200,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December, although we suspect that the unemployment rate was probably unchanged at 7.0%. 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Thailand ends the year in crisis Thailand heads into 2014 in political crisis. Anti-government protests that began in November have pushed the prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, into dissolving parliament and calling new elections... 24th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Data (Oct./Nov.) & MPC Minutes (Dec.) While the latest labour market figures have raised the chances that the jobless rate falls below the MPC’s 7% threshold in 2014, December’s minutes suggested that the benign inflation outlook will... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Retail sales growth accelerating The recent pick-up in the growth rate of underlying retail sales suggests that we are finally seeing a strengthening in domestic demand. It may well be sustained too. Coming out of the recession, the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Dec.) The odds seem in favour of Wednesday’s labour market figures revealing another fall in the jobless rate. While in recent months the MPC has tried to downplay the importance of the unemployment... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is wage growth about to pick up? Recent survey evidence suggests that wage growth may finally be starting to recover. The latest surveys from both the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and the British Chambers of... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Employment (Q3) Q3’s employment data add to evidence that the euro-zone’s labour market is finally stabilising. But a burst of strong job growth is probably a distant prospect. 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Growth in workforce will help keep interest rates down Some have argued that strong job creation will rapidly push down unemployment to the MPC’s 7% threshold. But this overlooks developments in another determinant of the unemployment rate – growth in the... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Taking stock of Saudi Arabia’s migrant crackdown Saudi Arabia’s wide-scale crackdown on illegal migrant workers seems unlikely to have the desired effect of raising the employment of Saudi nationals in the private sector. In the short term, it runs... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Finland’s economy to stagnate in 2014 The latest economic data show that Finland’s economy is struggling to recover from the recent yearlong recession. With many more years of painful reform ahead, it is likely that GDP growth will... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Economic activity picks up further Judging by the latest business surveys, activity in advanced economies has strengthened further. The global manufacturing PMI is now consistent on past form with world GDP growth of as much as 4%... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
