Africa Economics Update Why South Africa needs a weaker rand The South African rand was one of the hardest hit EM currencies during the summer sell-off and has now fallen by 15% against the US$ since the start of the year. However, as this Watch explains, a... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update ILO unemployment won’t necessarily follow claimant count down The claimant count measure of unemployment has been falling more sharply than the wider ILO measure used by the MPC in its forward guidance on interest rates. While the claimant count is a timelier... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Aug./Sep.) The latest labour market figures supported the MPC’s (and our own) view that even a fairly robust economic recovery will bring unemployment down only slowly. 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Oct.) We think that this Wednesday’s labour market figures will show that the unemployment rate held steady in August, which could prompt markets to push back further their expected timing of the first rise... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New housing activity spread signalling slowdown ahead The historically high number of housing units under construction justifies the current strength of construction employment. But the negative spread between housing starts and completions signals that... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September's modest 11,900 increase in employment, mostly among younger workers, still suggests that the economy is struggling to generate any material improvement in broader labour market conditions... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack As good as it gets? Japan’s export-oriented manufacturing sector is benefiting from the recovery in the global economy and the weakness in the yen, but the signals on domestic demand are mixed. Business spending does... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth prospects improve, but crisis unresolved The European economy has shown further signs of recovery, with the euro-zone finally emerging from recession in the second quarter and other parts of the continent also faring better. But growth in... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery, but the right sort? The recent concerns about the type of economic recovery underway in the UK are overdone. While the recovery still faces some major challenges, we do not believe that an over-reliance on the housing... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Peripheral labour markets are healing, but very slowly Evidence mounted last week that euro-zone unemployment has peaked. Particularly encouragingly, many of the peripheral economies have now enjoyed several months of falling unemployment. What’s more... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Confidence in the recovery strengthens The economic recovery is becoming more entrenched, with GDP confirmed as having grown by 0.7% in Q2 and expansion evident across all three main sectors of the economy. Meanwhile, sentiment has risen... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Falling inflation increases scope for monetary easing The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to 1.1% in September – its lowest rate since February 2010 – leaves it well below the ECB’s target of “below, but close to, 2%”. While falling energy inflation has... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug. 13) & Final Manu. PMI (Sep.13) August’s euro-zone unemployment figures provided further tentative signs that labour market conditions are improving. 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Unemployment Rate (Aug.) The surge in the unemployment rate in August reflects a jump in the labour force participation rate and is at odds with other labour market indicators. Unemployment is likely to resume its downtrend... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should retailers be worried by the minimum wage proposals? While tomorrow’s rise in the national minimum wage (NMW) is small, proposals to increase it significantly more in the future threaten to add to the pressure on retailers’ profit margins. But even if... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Could we be in for an upside payrolls surprise? The news of a modest 169,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, and the downward revision that cut July's gain to only 104,000, undoubtedly played a key role in the Fed's surprising decision to... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
