Canada Chart Pack Canada's sluggish export 'led' recovery Canada's export growth slowed to around 2.0% annualised in the second quarter, from just over 6.0% in the first quarter, which would seem to refute hopes of an export-led pick-up in economic growth... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Hollande reverse the trend in French unemployment? Time is running short for President François Hollande to fulfil his vow to reverse the trend of rising French unemployment by the end of 2013. Despite the recent improvement in the business surveys... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery entering a slower phase Japan’s economy likely continued to grow at a solid pace in the second quarter of the year, even though the recent wide divergence between various measures of consumer spending raises question marks... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The 162,000 increase in non-farm payrolls was a little below the consensus forecast at 185,000, but this isn't going to stop the Fed from reducing its monthly asset purchases at September's FOMC... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What to make of changes in labour market participation In most advanced western economies the supply of labour is likely to be boosted by a rise in labour market participation during the coming year or two. This should help to prevent wage inflation... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jul.) & Unemployment (Jun.) The latest news on euro-zone unemployment and inflation injected a slight note of caution after the recent run of better news from the region. 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Unemployment (Jun.)& Small Business Confidence (Jul.) We are not too worried about the fall in industrial production in June, as manufacturers forecast a strong rebound in July. Small business confidence also remains at relatively high levels. 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market resilient to slowdown in GDP growth Although the recent incoming data have suggested that second-quarter GDP growth could be particularly disappointing, with a sub 1.0% reading possible, we still expect the Fed to begin tapering its... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Fewer than normal auto shutdowns may lift payrolls Our econometric model suggests that the pick-up in jobs growth in June was maintained in July. A rise in payroll employment of 200,000 last month would be the fourth such gain in as many months. 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt in turmoil (again) Egypt’s “second revolution” has made the outlook for the Arab world’s most populous nation highly uncertain. The economy is already extremely fragile – growth is sluggish, unemployment is high and the... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Employment gains mean that QE3 tapering still on track Even as estimates for second-quarter GDP growth have been revised lower in response to the disappointing incoming news on activity, the continued resilience of monthly employment gains has persuaded... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jul 13.) & Labour market (May/Jun 13) The minutes of July’s MPC minutes suggested that the new Governor Mark Carney has united the Committee around using forward guidance rather than more quantitative easing to boost the economy... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the Spanish labour market really on the mend? Some commentators have pointed to the recent run of encouraging Spanish unemployment figures as evidence that the green shoots of recovery may be emerging there. But we are far from convinced that the... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican industry should still outperform Despite a poor start to the year there are still good reasons to expect Mexican manufacturing to strengthen over the second half of 2013 and support a period of relatively strong growth in the wider... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imbalances widen, despite slowdown With today’s GDP data squarely in line with consensus expectations we would focus on two other points, one encouraging, the other less so. The good news is that the labour market remains healthy,with... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unemployment threshold would have its problems With Mark Carney having already primed expectations at July’s MPC meeting, we still expect the MPC to embark on full-blown forward guidance at its meeting next month. An unemployment threshold is... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
