Europe Economics Weekly Rebalancing to weigh on euro-zone inflation further Recent data show that the euro-zone labour market is finally starting to strengthen and that labour costs are falling in the periphery relative to the core. But, while some economies are adjusting... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Data (Jan./Feb.) & MPC Minutes (Mar.) Today’s figures showed that the recovery in the labour market is slowing, increasing the chances that the MPC keeps official interest rates on hold until late next year. 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update There is no hidden rot in the jobs numbers The slump in average weekly hours worked over the past few months is undoubtedly weather-related and we expect to see a bounce back in the spring. 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Mar.) Wednesday’s labour market figures look set to show that the unemployment rate resumed its downward trend at the start of 2014. But they also seem likely to confirm that there is still plenty of spare... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed won’t ignore faster wage growth We don’t place much weight on the idea that the Fed would be happy to leave interest rates at near-zero until wage growth returned to 4%. Instead, we believe that a pick-up in wage growth to between 2... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Ukraine crisis clouds outlook, but Central Europe recovering The crisis in Ukraine has unsettled the markets, but the economic fallout should be contained to the two countries directly involved – Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine is by far the more fragile of the two... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Business Outlook Survey (Q1) Today's Business Outlook Survey suggests that demand should start to recover in Q3 after taking a hit from the consumption tax hike next quarter. 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Pick-up in wage growth may be genuine It will be a few months yet before we know for sure whether or not the recent pick-up in wage growth is just a temporary distortion caused by the unusually severe weather, but it does chime with the... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Economy will bounce back from weather disruption The unusually severe winter has been playing havoc with the incoming economic data but, once the weather returns to seasonal norms, we expect the US economy to perform strongly this year and in 2015... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) & Int. Trade (Jan.) The fact that payroll employment rebounded in February despite the unusually bad weather pretty much guarantees that the Fed will taper its asset purchases further at the mid-March policy meeting. 7th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) & Int. Trade (Jan.) The 7,000 decline in employment in February specifically is not a major concern since the unusually severe winter may have played a role. Nevertheless, the broader picture is that employment has been... 7th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Still on course for steady recovery A combination of severe winter weather in the US, New Year celebrations in China and a planned tax hike in Japan are making it more difficult than usual to assess the strength of the world economy... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay squeeze continuing to ease The squeeze on real earnings is continuing to ease, increasing the chances that 2014 is the first year that real pay rises since the financial crisis. Granted, the headline (three month average of the... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The calm before the storm Recent economic data have mostly been positive, with industrial production and retail sales climbing to multi-year highs, and corporate profitability exceptionally strong. However, investors are... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jan.) Sluggish wage growth in Japan remains a major stumbling block to higher inflation and the overall success of Abenomics. 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed needs to revise forward guidance soon There is a strong possibility that February's labour market figures, due out this Friday, will only make the Fed's job even harder. There is a chance that the unemployment rate could have hit the 6.5%... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
