Japan Economics Update Higher inflation not necessarily good news for workers The year-on-year increase in labour cash earnings in January was flattered by late payments of winter bonuses. Underlying wage growth is still negative, meaning that households have been relying on... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s fall in euro-zone CPI inflation and the further rise in unemployment in January raised the chances of further policy action by the ECB. 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Earnings growth won’t take off Our econometric model suggests that payrolls rose by around 175,000 in February, which would leave employment growing at much the same pace as in recent months. Without a meaningful acceleration in... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Unemployment (Feb.) February’s fall in German CPI inflation should ease fears of inflationary pressure in the euro-zone’s largest economy despite the continued fall in unemployment. 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fears about German wage growth are overdone The recent rise in German wage growth and signs of a further increase to come have prompted fears of a pick-up in inflation and loss of competitiveness. We think that these worries are overdone... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Hungary's employment puzzle Rising employment has been one of the few bright spots for the recession-stricken Hungarian economy. But this merely reflects the weakness (indeed absence) of labour productivity growth. And as long... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) & Labour market (Dec./Jan.) February’s MPC minutes provided another clear demonstration of the Committee’s increasingly flexible approach to inflation targeting. We continue to think that more QE is only a few months away. 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus The "two-speed" continent The scope for rapid “catch-up” growth, allied with improving levels of governance, point to a relatively upbeat outlook for most of sub-Saharan Africa over the next decade or so. By contrast, a lack... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) January's weaker than expected 21,900 decline in employment (the consensus estimate was +5,000) can be forgiven, given the unusually strong gains posted in previous months. Nevertheless, with the... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s labour market puzzle The most puzzling aspect of Brazil’s poor economic performance of the past 18 months is that it has come alongside an improvement in the labour market. We think the explanation lies in Brazil’s low... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What should the Fed make of the labour market? The mixed messages in January's labour market report underline how hard it is for the financial markets to gauge exactly what the Fed means by its loosely defined pledge, to continue with its... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) Coming on the heels of the unexpected dip in fourth-quarter GDP, January's Employment Report should help to soothe any lingering concerns that the economy is headed for a recession. 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) January’s fall in euro-zone inflation is good news for consumers, but with unemployment still at a record high in December, incomes and spending will remain under severe strain. 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Companies running faster just to stand still While the economy may be entering a “triple-dip”, employment growth continues to be surprisingly strong. A look at which sectors are creating jobs suggests that part of the rise in employment reflects... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Steady, but not spectacular Our econometric model suggests that payroll employment rose by a respectable, but hardly spectacular, 150,000 in January. Meanwhile, the annual benchmark revision may show that payrolls rose by more... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Nov./Dec.) The labour market appears to have found a second wind following earlier indications that its strength was fading. But the price for this resilience is very depressed earnings growth. 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
