US Data Response Employment Report (May) By revealing a decent rise in payroll employment but a small rise in the unemployment rate, May’s Employment Report had something for everyone. Our reading is that it leaves the Fed on track to taper... 7th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Youth unemployment likely to have risen further Two and a half years on from the Arab Spring uprisings, youth unemployment in the Middle East, which was a key trigger for the unrest, remains high. In fact, we suspect it may have risen over the past... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latvia is still no role model for the euro-zone periphery Today’s convergence report by the EC, which gave the green light to Latvia to join the euro-zone in 2014, is likely to lead to further suggestions that Latvia serves as a role model of “internal... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May 13) & Unemployment (Apr. 13) April’s rise in unemployment and the fact inflation remained well below target in May will add to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support. 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions improving slightly Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by a solid 175,000, in May, although we suspect the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.5%. 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Wages and salaries less supportive to consumption growth Political unrest, a fragile banking sector and a weak fiscal position are all likely to weigh on Bahrain’s economy over the next few years. As a result, we expect it to be one of the worst performers... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery now being held back by fiscal tightening The US recovery has, up to now, remained lacklustre, but there are signs that this extended malaise could finally give way to a period of more vigorous growth. We expect GDP growth to accelerate from... 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumer spending unlikely to stage strong recovery Over-invoicing by exporters over the last five months has significantly inflated the apparent strength of overseas demand. While official customs data show a surge in exports, this is not evident in... 17th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Mar./Apr.) Following recent positive news on the economy, the latest UK labour market data provided something of a reality check. Admittedly, a fall in headline employment and a rise in unemployment disguised... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April's moderate 12,500 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was +15,000) suggests that the economy has begun this quarter on a somewhat softer footing. If we are correct about the economy's... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Retailers could be shifting to part-time employment The evidence is far from conclusive, but the recent decline in average weekly hours worked, particularly in the retail sector, may be partly explained by employers cutting hours to avoid paying the... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The better than expected 165,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in April, combined with the 114,000 upward revision to the gains in the preceding two months, will go a long way toward soothing fears of... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) & Unemployment (Mar.) April’s drop in euro-zone inflation and the further rise in unemployment in March have added to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Improving sentiment still not matched in hard data Despite the widespread optimism about the benefits that “Abenomics” may eventually bring to Japanese businesses and households, the hard data continue to disappoint. In particular, industrial... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the economy as strong as the jobs figures suggest? The fact that the official measure of employment is now above its pre-recession peak, while GDP is still about 2.5% below its former high point, calls into question the reliability of the figures. We... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls rebound as weather distortion fades Our econometric model suggests that, although the labour market has weakened since earlier in the year, conditions are not quite as bad as March’s Employment Report suggested. We expect a rebound in... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
