UK Economics Update Is the unemployment rate an outlier? The fall in unemployment has not been out of line with the wider evidence on the labour market or the economy. But the uncertainty over the implications for inflation suggests that the Monetary Policy... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unemployment still well above an "equilibrium" rate Although the unemployment rate is falling rapidly, there is plenty of evidence that it is still well above a level that would generate inflation and require official interest rates to rise soon. 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Today's downbeat PMI suggests that the slowdown in China's manufacturing sector is accelerating. Tighter monetary conditions appear to be slowing domestic demand and will continue to weigh on growth... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shrinking workforce not a major growth risk Contrary to some headlines this week, the ongoing decline in China’s working age population does not pose a major threat to China’s medium-term growth prospects. What matters is what happens to worker... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Data, MPC Mins (Jan.) & Pub. Fin. (Dec.) Today’s figures show that conditions are continuing to improve rapidly in the labour market. But the further fall in the unemployment rate is unlikely to trigger an imminent interest rate hike by the... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Jan.13) While Wednesday’s labour market figures are likely to show that the unemployment rate fell again in November, a swift fall to the 7% threshold used for the MPC’s forward guidance is not assured. A... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly “Wage surprise” more likely to be a damp squib Prime Minister Abe has promised to deliver a positive "wage surprise" this year by working closely with employers and trade unions. He has drawn inspiration from an agreement reached in the... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook A brighter outlook We expect global growth to pick up gradually during the coming two years as private sector spending accelerates and fiscal austerity eases. Among advanced economies, the US will lead the recovery... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why the hukou matters less than many think There has been some disappointment since the Third Plenum that the Party is not moving faster to reform the hukou household registration system. This may not matter much for the economy – the... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deflation dangers cast shadow over recovery The European economy looks set for another year of weak growth in 2014, with the euro-zone likely to do little more than stagnate. Against that background, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Businesses still remain in cautious mood The Bank of Canada's latest business outlook survey shows some welcome improvement in investment and hiring intentions but, despite the Canadian dollar's recent decline and stronger sales expectations... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) December's shocking decline in employment and hours worked probably had more to do with severe winter storms rather than the broader state of the economy. Accordingly, we suspect that this large... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) We suspect that the unexpectedly weak 74,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December is largely explained by the unseasonably severe winter weather last month. Under those circumstances, we still expect... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The leader of the pack? The UK economy has leapt towards the top of the international growth table and there are good reasons to think it can stay there. We now expect the economy to grow by 3% this year and next. 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures still building Recent euro-zone inflation data have provided firmer signs that CPI inflation will remain well below the ECB’s 2% stability ceiling for longer than the Bank itself expects. Admittedly, headline CPI... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) November’s euro-zone unemployment and retail sales data provided fresh evidence that the outlook for consumers is improving, but only slowly. 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
