Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November's stronger than expected 21,600 gain in employment was overshadowed by the decline in hours worked. Accordingly, the incoming data still points to slower fourth-quarter GDP growth, which we... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment (Nov.) & Income/Spending (Oct.) The 203,000 increase in November's non-farm payrolls, along with the drop in the unemployment rate to a five-year low of 7.0%, gives the Fed all the evidence it needs to begin tapering its asset... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weak growth & strong euro keep pressure on ECB Having slowed almost to a halt in Q3, early indications suggest that the euro-zone’s economic recovery is unlikely to have regained much momentum – if any – in the final quarter of the year. Meanwhile... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation easing despite stronger recovery CPI inflation fell sharply from 2.7% to 2.2% in October and it looks likely to fall below the 2% target soon. Past falls in global agricultural commodity prices suggest that food price inflation will... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) & ADP Payrolls (Nov.) The trade deficit narrowed to $40.6bn in October, from $43.0bn, but that decline only partly reversed the widening in September. Looking through the month-to-month volatility, the trade deficit... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Oct.) The rise in wages in October largely reflects volatile overtime payments, while regular pay continues to fall. Looking ahead, there are a number of reasons to be sceptical about an acceleration in... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) The latest news on euro-zone inflation and unemployment will do little to relieve the pressure on the ECB to take more action to support the fragile economic recovery and head off a potentially... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices, Unemployment, Industrial Production (Oct.), Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Despite a slower-than-expected rise in industrial production in October, the outlook for the sector remains buoyant. Meanwhile, there are signs that domestic inflationary pressure is picking up even... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey, German Unemp. (Nov.) & Spa. GDP (Q3) November’s rise in the EC’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is a comforting sign given the recent falls in other indicators, like the composite PMI, but we still expect the recovery to... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Low quality job creation to restrain income growth It is encouraging that, even allowing for the modest drop back in September, the payroll survey suggests employment growth picked up in the third quarter. Unfortunately, over the past year, payroll... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Good enough to taper? Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payroll employment rose by a solid 180,000 in November, which may be enough to prompt the Fed to taper its asset purchases at the policy meeting in... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan's dual labour market such a big problem? Japan’s dual labour market undoubtedly has some economic costs, as non-regular workers are much less productive than regular employees. However, the degree of labour market duality is not vastly... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Drop in participation rate more structural than cyclical The push by the Fed to delay tapering its asset purchases and possibly to lower its unemployment rate threshold suggests that officials expect the participation rate to rebound. We're not convinced... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Public jobs no solution to high MENA unemployment High unemployment rates have grabbed the headlines in the MENA region, not only as a catalyst for the Arab Spring revolutions but also for prompting a backlash against expatriate workers in the region... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) November’s Inflation Report provided some superficial support for expectations that interest rates will rise sooner than the MPC suggested back in August. But we still think that the disinflationary... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Underemployment will keep wage pressure subdued Underemployment, where people are in employment but want to work more hours, reached a record high in the first half of 2013. This means that there is more slack in the labour market than the... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
