Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) October's moderate 13,200 increase in employment, which was only slightly above the consensus estimate of 11,000, is further evidence that the economy is struggling to produce any material improvement... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The much bigger than expected 204,000 gain in October's non-farm payrolls, combined with a cumulative 60,000 upward revision to the gains in the two preceding months will mostly definitely increase... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Ageing population need not hit workforce growth too hard The ONS’ latest population projections suggest that the UK’s population will age even more rapidly than previously expected. But we doubt this will feed into a one-for-one fall in workforce growth and... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Encouraging start to the fourth quarter Global growth appears to have accelerated in October, as suggested by the rise in business surveys to their highest levels since early 2011. After accelerating in Q3, the US economy seems to have... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack ECB likely to soften stance but refrain from action The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to a four year low of 0.7% has raised the prospect of a bout of outright deflation in the euro-zone economy. While cost pressures are not as weak as they were when... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery strengthens and broadens The economic recovery still seems to be gathering speed. The 0.8% quarterly rise in GDP in the third quarter was the strongest expansion seen since Q2 2010. And whereas a year or so ago, the recovery... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Accounting for the government shutdown The Federal government shutdown won't have had a major bearing on payroll employment, which we estimate rose by around 140,000 in October. But it will have put a dent in the alternative household... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment figures provide another clear signal that the recovery is still very fragile and will increase pressure on the ECB to take further action to support the... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Any fall in French unemployment will be largely illusory Contrary to expectations, French President François Hollande may fulfil his promise to reduce unemployment by the end of the year. But he will do so by relying on temporary initiatives rather than... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) & Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.) The manufacturing PMI reached a three-year high in October and points to a further rebound in industrial production in coming months. Meanwhile, labour cash earnings edged up in September, but the... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & ADP Payrolls (Oct.) The decline in CPI inflation in September and signs of weaker jobs growth in October support the now widespread view that the Fed won’t begin to taper its monthly asset purchases until next year. 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fall in South African unemployment needs context South Africa’s unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 2011 in Q3 but, while this is encouraging, it needs to be seen in a wider context. Unemployment remains above its natural rate, which... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment Rate, Retail Sales (Sep.) & Small Business Confidence (Oct.) Today's data show that economic momentum remains strong. Small business confidence and retail sales both reached new multi-year highs, helped by strong employment gains. 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What's behind the slowdown in jobs growth? A satisfactory explanation for the easing in jobs growth is hard to find, but a fading of the fiscal drag and a further pick up in overseas demand means it probably won’t be sustained for long. We... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone still on track for a grinding recovery Although the Bank of Spain’s Q3 GDP estimate suggested that Spain may have exited its two-year recession, the fall in the euro-zone composite PMI in October highlighted that the region’s economic... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep 13.) Despite the further decline in the unemployment rate to a five-year low of 7.2% in September, from 7.3%, the disappointing 148,000 increase in non-farm payrolls last month will reinforce market... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
